Price drops to $1.25 on market-wide sell-off, but analysts debate whether recovery could spring a bear trap
XRP traded below key macro support levels on Tuesday as a market-wide sell-off pushed the token to $1.25, testing the 50-month exponential moving average and a multi-year ascending trend line that has supported price since 2017.
The move extended losses from earlier in June, when XRP opened the month at $0.33. The token is now trading directly on or slightly below the White MACRO Trend Line, a critical technical level that has historically provided support during macro drawdowns.
Analyst Egrag Crypto posted analysis on X highlighting the significance of the current setup. “If XRP reclaims the 50 EMA and the Macro trend line, this setup could become one of the biggest bear traps of the cycle,” Crypto wrote. He added that “the market is leaning heavily bearish,” suggesting traders are positioned for further downside.
The breakdown echoes XRP’s historical struggle during June. Since 2014, the token has closed the month in the red eight of the past 12 times, with an average June return of negative 5 percent. In 2021, XRP dropped 34.4 percent in June following the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple. June 2018 saw losses of 23.8 percent, and June 2022 closed down 21.5 percent.
Analysts are divided on the depth of the correction. ChartNerd identified a potential bottoming zone of $0.90 to $0.70, stating “many of you admire this beautiful $XRP fractal, which leaves the door open to a $0.90/$0.70 XRP before any major reversal.” The analyst is positioning for new local lows, with traders increasing bets on a drop below $1.20.
Kamile Uray takes a less bearish view, identifying $1.26 to $1.30 as an important support zone to defend against deeper correction. Uray targets $0.94 to $1.11 as a deeper correction target if that level breaks, referencing the Feb. 6 low of $1.11 as a key reference point.
The current price action mirrors prior instances when XRP opened the month below the 50 EMA during macro drawdowns. In 2020, 2023, and 2024, the token wicked below the macro trend line before recovering, according to technical analysis cited by Egrag Crypto. The structure often formed a bottoming zone in those periods.
Traders are watching the $1 psychological support level closely. If XRP holds above current levels and reclaims the 50 EMA and macro trend line, Egrag Crypto’s bear trap thesis could materialize. A failure to defend support, however, would open the door to the deeper correction targets outlined by ChartNerd and Kamile Uray.
