Polymarket is in active talks with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to regain broader access to its prediction markets platform, according to Bloomberg reporting on April 29, 2026. The move would reverse a 2022 settlement that barred US users and imposed a $1.4 million civil penalty. Polymarket currently operates a limited US sports betting product launched in December 2025 through a regulated QCEX framework, but the company is seeking permission to expand beyond sports contracts to its full suite of prediction markets.
How Polymarket Lost US Access in 2022
Polymarket settled with the CFTC in 2022 after the regulator determined the platform operated as an unregistered derivatives exchange. The settlement required the company to restrict all US user access and pay $1.4 million in civil penalties. Before the ban, Polymarket dominated the prediction markets sector. In November 2024, the platform commanded over 90% of monthly notional volume across prediction markets globally. The restriction forced Polymarket to rebuild its business model outside the US, while competitors like Kalshi gained regulatory footing domestically through partnerships with exchanges including Coinbase.
Regulatory Headwinds and Market Competition
Polymarket faces mounting legal pressure alongside its regulatory negotiations. On April 23, 2026, Wisconsin law enforcement filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, Kalshi, and other platforms, alleging facilitation of illegal sports betting. The Justice Department has also accused a US soldier of using Polymarket via VPN to circumvent restrictions, reportedly generating over $400,000 in profits. These enforcement actions underscore the legal complexity surrounding US prediction market access. Meanwhile, Kalshi has captured significant market share since September 2025, when Polymarket’s volume leadership began eroding. Four vacant CFTC commissioner seats could expedite regulatory decision-making on Polymarket’s relaunch request, though no official CFTC confirmation of talks has been released.
Broader Sector Implications
US prediction markets have emerged as a high-growth sector, with multiple platforms competing for regulatory approval and market dominance. Polymarket’s potential relaunch would reshape competitive dynamics, given its historical volume leadership and brand recognition. However, regulatory scrutiny is intensifying globally. Brazil has banned 27 prediction platforms entirely, signaling tightening restrictions in key markets. The outcome of Polymarket’s CFTC negotiations will signal whether US regulators view prediction markets as legitimate financial infrastructure or as gambling platforms requiring strict containment. Paradigm has questioned Polymarket’s historical volume reporting accuracy, adding scrutiny to the company’s market position claims.
Next Steps and Unresolved Questions
Polymarket declined to comment to Cointelegraph about the CFTC talks. The company has signaled ambition to expand “beyond sports,” suggesting broader market access is the goal. No timeline for a CFTC commission vote has been disclosed, and specific regulatory requirements for full US relaunch remain undefined. The intersection of ongoing state-level litigation, federal enforcement actions, and CFTC negotiations will determine whether Polymarket can recover its pre-2022 market position.
