Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder and chief investment officer of crypto fund Maelstrom, predicted Bitcoin will surge past $90,000 and reach $126,000, citing two structural inflationary forces: accelerating AI infrastructure spending financed through central bank credit, and geopolitical conflict forcing sovereign nations to rebuild. Hayes is positioning his fund at maximum risk with concentrated bets on altcoins including Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC), and NEAR Protocol.
The Inflation Thesis Behind Bitcoin’s Rally
Hayes argues Bitcoin bottomed near $60,000 in early 2026 and has entered a sustained bull market driven by a fundamental shift in how AI capital expenditure is funded. Rather than corporations drawing down cash flow, he contends that AI capex is now being financed through bank and central bank credit creation, with both the Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China loosening monetary conditions. The second inflationary pressure stems from the U.S.-Iran war that began February 28, which Hayes believes is forcing sovereign nations to reallocate spending toward infrastructure rebuilding and commodity stockpiling instead of holding dollars. This combination creates what Hayes calls a “higher for longer” inflationary environment—precisely the macro backdrop where Bitcoin historically outperforms.
Market Setup and Altcoin Positioning
Bitcoin briefly rose above $82,000 on Tuesday, May 13, 2026, trading near $80,673 at publication. Hayes contends that breaking above $90,000 will trigger an “explosive” rally toward $126,000, the level Bitcoin reached in October 2025. A move to that target represents a 55% gain from current levels. Hayes disclosed that Maelstrom holds positions in Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Zcash (ZEC), with NEAR Protocol identified as the fund’s next major altcoin bet. On NEAR, Hayes stated: “This will flip the script on the disastrous price performance of the token,” citing the protocol’s privacy narrative and intents-based architecture as drivers of positive cash flow generation going forward.
Outperformance Metrics and Macro Timing
Since February 28, Bitcoin has outperformed both the Nasdaq 100 and the IGV software ETF—a reversal Hayes attributes to the inflation thesis rather than traditional tech sector dynamics. The divergence signals that digital assets are decoupling from equity beta. Hayes remains bullish through the November 2026 mid-term elections, which he characterized as a potential “speed bump,” and maintains conviction into the 2028 U.S. presidential election cycle. His closing statement: “It’s a bull market; close your eyes and press the button. There will be a time to sell, but it ain’t right now.”
Next Moves and Unresolved Variables
Hayes has not disclosed a specific timeline for Bitcoin to break $90,000 or the size of Maelstrom’s altcoin positions. He deferred detailed explanation of the NEAR thesis to a follow-up essay. The critical test remains whether Fed and PBOC policy actually tightens before the predicted moves materialize, and whether geopolitical tensions sustain the inflationary narrative Hayes is betting on.
