Bitcoin gained 11.9% in April 2026, marking its strongest monthly performance in a year, yet closed above $76,000 while struggling to reclaim critical technical support. The rally coincided with the S&P 500 hitting fresh all-time highs near 7,220 points, driven by strong earnings from Google and Apple, even as US inflation pressures mounted.
Inflation Warnings Ignored as Risk Assets Rally
US PCE inflation climbed to 3.5% in March 2026, reaching its highest level since August 2023, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Kobeissi Letter noted the timing: “In the first month of the Iran War, US inflation hit a 3-year high. April’s data will be interesting.” Despite these inflation signals, both Bitcoin and equities powered higher throughout April. The S&P 500 added approximately $8 trillion in market capitalization since hitting local lows at the end of March. Charlie Bilello, Chief Market Strategist at Creative Planning, contextualized the broader equity rally: “A year ago it was at 5,600. 5 years ago it was at 4,200. 10 years ago it was at 2,100.” The index now trades more than 28% above levels from a decade prior.
Bitcoin Eyes $77,500 Amid EMA Rejection
Bitcoin closed April above $76,000 and is targeting $77,500 according to trader analysis, yet technical weakness persists beneath the surface. Rekt Capital flagged a critical issue: “The Bitcoin pullback continues and this is looking more and more like an EMA rejection, especially if BTC isn’t able to Weekly Close above the EMA by end of week.” The asset has failed to reclaim the 21-week exponential moving average, a level last successfully closed above in October 2025. CoinGlass data and TradingView charting confirm Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a retest of the mid-$60,000 support zone on weekly timeframes, which Rekt Capital argued was “technically necessary to achieve full breakout confirmation.”
Equity Outperformance Signals Divergence
Bitcoin’s 11.9% monthly gain, while substantial, underperformed the S&P 500’s rise to all-time highs. Tech sector strength from Google and Apple earnings outpaced cryptocurrency momentum, suggesting institutional capital continues favoring traditional equities despite inflation concerns. The divergence highlights a critical tension: markets are pricing in either Fed accommodation or earnings resilience strong enough to offset inflation headwinds. The fact that Bitcoin gained less than equities despite inflation worries suggests traders view the broader risk environment as stable rather than stagflationary.
Technical Confirmation Required for Sustained Breakout
Bitcoin needs to close above the 21-week EMA on a weekly basis to confirm a breakout from its current range. Without this confirmation, the asset risks a deeper pullback toward mid-$60,000 support. May’s PCE data release will be closely watched by both equity and crypto traders as the next inflation signal. The mixed technical picture—strong monthly gains coupled with EMA rejection—suggests Bitcoin’s April rally may face headwinds unless it reclaims key moving averages in coming weeks.
