Bulls defend key support ahead of FOMC meeting and tech earnings deluge
Bitcoin consolidated near $80,000 support over the weekend as traders braced for a pivotal week of US economic data and corporate earnings, with the Federal Reserve’s rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, October 28.
Almost $150 million of long positions liquidated in two hours Saturday, driving Bitcoin to $79,145 before buyers stepped in. A $73 million bid wall held the price above $79,300, while ask prices centered around $81,000. The move came after Bitcoin ETFs bled $635 million on Friday, October 23, following a 3% loss that day.
Markets have priced only 12% odds of a rate hike this week, a sharp reversal from earlier in 2026. Robin Brooks, an economist, noted the shift in sentiment: “After very contentious Fed meetings earlier in 2026, this week’s meeting gets zero interest in markets, which price only 12% odds of a hike. That’s nothing versus how markets tried to push Warsh into hiking back in July. A temporary reprieve for Warsh.”
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces a backdrop of cooling inflation and global uncertainty. PCE inflation came in at 3.4% year-on-year last month, below expectations, though analysts attributed the decline to changes in index calculation methodology. The current federal funds rate sits at 3.75% to 4%, with markets pricing only 0.25% odds of a December hike.
The week ahead carries substantial weight. Microsoft and Alphabet report earnings after market close Wednesday, the same day as the FOMC decision. Amazon and Intel earnings follow Thursday, October 29, alongside the US Q3 GDP release and another PCE index reading. About 20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week.
Geopolitical and energy markets add complexity. Brent crude peaked at $117 per barrel Friday before falling to $110 by Monday, October 27. Brooks warned of tail risks: “If anything, financial conditions would be tightening sharply, so the last thing you’d want to do is hike.” He outlined a scenario where oil climbs to $125, triggering cascading losses across debt-laden sectors. “The debt crisis in France would escalate sharply, anxiety around all the AI and data center debt would increase and the S&P 500 would tumble. That just isn’t a setting where the Fed is itching to hike.”
Asian equity weakness reflected broader caution. South Korea’s KOSPI Composite fell to 5,308 points Friday before closing Monday at 5,469, down 1.5%. The Nasdaq Composite closed Friday at 25,955.
Bitcoin’s October performance has disappointed historically. The asset averages 26.1% gains in October since 2010, but October 2025 delivered a 3.9% loss followed by a 17.5% November decline, despite average November returns of 35%. Bitcoin is on track to end October down 4%.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, characterized Bitcoin’s rallies to $87,000 in late September and early October as a “fakeout.” The $87,000 zone contains the 2026 yearly open at $87,490 and the 20-month moving average at $87,165.
Raisah Rasid of JPMorgan Asset Management flagged a structural shift in market rewards: “It’s really about investors thinking, ‘Look, we’re not rewarding capex anymore; what we are rewarding is return on capital. I think that’s what’s happening with AI.'” Tesla’s reduced Q3 capital expenditure drew scrutiny despite stronger-than-expected US earnings overall, suggesting capital discipline now outweighs growth spending.
Bitcoin ETFs posted a $301 million inflow in the three hours before this article’s publication Monday, a modest rebound from Friday’s outflow. CoinGlass data tracked liquidation levels and bid-ask spreads as traders positioned ahead of Wednesday’s decision.
