Bitcoin recovered from an early-morning low near $79,400 to trade around $80,500 on Tuesday, holding above the $80,000 support level ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve policy decision and the November midterm elections.
The cryptocurrency was up 0.3% over the prior 24 hours by mid-afternoon Eastern time, trading within a $79,000 to $81,000 band for the week. Bitcoin’s intraday high reached $80,800.
The price recovery follows a Monday selloff that pushed Bitcoin below $80,000 as investors reduced risk exposure due to concerns about AI-sector valuations and higher oil prices. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been shedding money during the period.
Fed Policy and Rate Expectations
The Federal Reserve holds its policy meeting on October 27 and 28. The central bank maintained its target range at 3.75% to 4% after raising rates in September, with officials signaling another increase may be needed by year-end. Higher rates drain liquidity from speculative assets like Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s price sits roughly 30% below its all-time high near $126,000, set in October 2025. Earlier in the fall, some analysts projected a price range near $88,000 if the Fed held or softened its tone.
Political Uncertainty and Market Structure
Prediction markets favored Democrats winning both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections. Polymarket odds showed 90% probability for Democrats winning the House and 62% for the Senate.
TD Cowen warned that midterm results could stall the pending CLARITY Act, the most immediate policy question for crypto, for two years. The market structure bill stalled after a failed Senate cloture vote in September, with ethics provisions and stablecoin yield dividing lawmakers.
A Democratic sweep was characterized as the most negative scenario for Bitcoin, while a Republican sweep was viewed as best for crypto. Historical patterns show Bitcoin and risk assets rallied within 12 months after past midterm cycles.
Bitcoin’s $80,000 level has emerged as the market’s line in the sand, with traders watching whether the asset can sustain support above that threshold through the week’s political and monetary policy events.
