Bitcoin held near $65,000 on Monday as the largest cryptocurrency defied weakness in technology stocks, but this week’s Federal Reserve policy decision and U.S. economic data could force a breakout above $67,300 or trigger a pullback toward $52,000-$58,000.
The price resilience arrived even as Nvidia fell 4.8% and the broader tech sector stumbled. Bitcoin gained 4% since Friday. Ether hit its strongest price in nearly two months on July 27, with the ETH-BTC ratio climbing to a three-month high.
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, framed the resilience as a structural shift. “The recent resilience of crypto during periods of volatility in traditional markets is an encouraging development,” Kruger said. “It supports the argument that digital assets are beginning to decouple, at least at the margin, from conventional risk assets.”
Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, shares this bullish view. Both strategists see ether’s outperformance and crypto’s stability as signals supporting a push above the $67,300 resistance level.
Not all analysts agree. Nicolai Sondergaard, senior research analyst at Nansen, disputes the bullish framing. “The market is holding range without strong buyers, not building toward a breakout,” Sondergaard said. Nansen’s base case targets a pullback toward $52,000-$58,000 unless market conditions improve.
The divergence reflects deeper uncertainty about conviction. Open interest in bitcoin futures has fallen even as prices edged higher. Order-book data points to net selling pressure. Over the past week, 9,000 BTC left exchanges, a metric sometimes read as accumulation, though it does not necessarily indicate strong buying intent.
Catalysts This Week
Wednesday, July 30 brings the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. Thursday, July 31 will see the release of core PCE inflation data, second-quarter GDP figures, and earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Friday, August 1 marks bitcoin and ether options expiry worth approximately $13-14 billion, which can amplify price swings.
Bitcoin has been in a months-long trading range with prices capped since June. The Nasdaq closed roughly flat despite the technology selloff, supported by gains in Apple, Microsoft, and Google. Ether resistance sits at $2,000.
Sondergaard’s skepticism hinges on the lack of sustained buying. Kruger and Lee view recent moves as early signs of decoupling from traditional risk assets, a narrative that would gain traction if bitcoin breaks above $67,300 this week. The outcome depends largely on whether the Fed signals rate cuts and whether earnings from mega-cap technology firms stabilize investor sentiment.
