Bitcoin has likely bottomed, according to Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered. The bank’s analysis pins the cycle low at roughly $59,000, a 53% drawdown from Bitcoin’s October all-time high of $126,000.
Kendrick issued the call on June 12, 2026, as Bitcoin traded near $64,000, up 5% over the prior week. “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick wrote in a research note. “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle.”
Standard Chartered first set a $100,000 year-end price target for Bitcoin in February 2026. Kendrick’s cycle-low declaration suggests the bank expects a sustained recovery from current levels toward that target.
ETF Outflows and SpaceX Timing
Kendrick attributes the recent bottom to a confluence of factors. Bitcoin ETF outflows totaling $5.72 billion since the second week of May represent among the sharpest outflows since inception, according to the analysis. Kendrick argues that significant Bitcoin ETF selling was driven by investors liquidating crypto holdings to secure allocations in the SpaceX IPO.
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 12, 2026, and shares opened 20% above the IPO price. The offering raised $75 billion. Kendrick’s thesis holds that as IPO-related selling pressure eases following the SpaceX debut, institutional demand for Bitcoin should renew.
The SpaceX IPO also generated substantial crypto derivatives activity. Open interest in SpaceX perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid reached $240 million, with 24-hour volume of $220 million, ranking SpaceX as the eighth-largest asset on the platform by size.
Macro Tailwinds
Beyond IPO-driven flows, Kendrick points to improving macro conditions. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields had weighed on risk assets like crypto by making risk-free government debt more attractive. Recent easing of yield pressure signals a potential shift in the environment.
Geopolitical developments also factor into the outlook. Middle East hostilities have kept global oil supplies tight. On Thursday, June 11, President Trump stated that a potential U.S.-Iran breakthrough could come “this weekend.” However, Trump later posted on Truth Social that a publicly announced deal was not what had been agreed, creating uncertainty about the peace deal’s status. A G7 summit is scheduled for the week of June 16, 2026.
Oil prices declined modestly on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling 1.5% to trade between $85 and $86 per barrel. Kendrick’s cycle-low thesis depends partly on geopolitical stabilization reducing safe-haven demand and freeing capital for risk assets.
Institutional Positioning
Standard Chartered’s call hinges on renewed institutional appetite for Bitcoin as IPO-related liquidation subsides and macro conditions stabilize. The bank’s $100,000 year-end target implies roughly 56% upside from the $64,000 price at which Kendrick issued the note.
The timing of the call, issued the same day SpaceX went public, underscores Kendrick’s view that a major source of selling pressure has now been removed. Whether institutional buyers step in at current levels will determine whether the $59,000 low holds as the cycle trough.
