Benchmark, TD Cowen, and Mizuho Securities issued buy-equivalent ratings on Bitdeer, DeFi Technologies, Strive, and Gemini on May 19, arguing the market systematically undervalues their transition from pure trading and mining toward AI infrastructure, capital markets utilities, and structured financial products. The three analyst firms contend these platforms command multiples 40% below peers despite accelerating operational momentum in higher-margin verticals.
AI Data Center Power Becomes Primary Profit Engine
Bitdeer’s shift toward AI infrastructure represents the sector’s most aggressive pivot. The company operates a 3.0 gigawatt global power portfolio, including 180 megawatts of capacity in Tydal, Norway. Its AI cloud revenue annualized run rate jumped from $10 million in late January to $69 million by end of April 2026, powered by 4,100+ GPU units operating at 90%+ utilization. Q1 revenue reached $188.9 million versus $70.1 million year-over-year, though the company reported a $159.5 million net loss attributed to transitory factors including weak bitcoin pricing and power cost depreciation. Adjusted EBITDA stood positive at $14.4 million, signaling the underlying business model’s viability as power constraints among hyperscalers intensify demand for alternative colocation.
Capital Markets Utilities Command Compressed Multiples
DeFi Technologies and Gemini represent a second category: platforms repositioning as infrastructure for digital asset finance. DeFi Technologies generated $11.2 million Q1 revenue and $4.9 million net income, with trading commissions up 38% year-over-year to $2.9 million. The company manages $156 million in cash, crypto, and venture holdings against a $275 million market cap. TD Cowen assigned a $2 price target—cut from $3—implying a 12x multiple on $0.15 adjusted 2026 earnings per share. CEO Johan Wattenstrom described the firm as “a vertically integrated capital markets utility for digital assets,” positioning its proprietary custody stack for tokenization and stablecoin infrastructure. Assets under management declined 32% year-over-year to $533.6 million, though 2026 revenue guidance stands at $12 million. Gemini faces more dramatic headwinds: trading volume fell 50%+ while transaction revenue remained flat, yet credit card revenue surged 300% year-over-year to 30% of total. Mizuho’s Dan Dolev emphasized that profitability “is more important than the growth itself,” framing Gemini’s take-rate expansion as evidence of transformation despite sector skepticism. The exchange projects $239 million 2026 revenue and $330 million 2027 revenue, with 100 million+ prediction market contracts outstanding.
Bitcoin Accumulation and Structured Yield Drive Valuation Gaps
Strive represents a third model: Bitcoin accumulation via daily dividend perpetual shares. The platform held 13,628 BTC at end of Q1 2026 with a 26.1% projected 2026 BTC yield estimate, implying $263 million in potential bitcoin gains. TD Cowen raised its price target to $30 from $26, projecting 50% capital appreciation. These three companies collectively signal a structural shift: crypto infrastructure now competes for institutional capital alongside traditional fintech and data center operators. Yet sector-wide valuation compression persists, with analysts arguing the market underestimates both operational leverage and the scarcity value of compliant, regulated digital asset infrastructure.
Regulatory Compliance and Timeline Risk Remain Unresolved
DeFi Technologies faces a Nasdaq minimum bid compliance issue with approximately one year of runway. Bitdeer’s prospective investment-grade tenant lease remains unconfirmed. Strive’s daily dividend structure approval status is unclear. Gemini’s 2028 path to positive adjusted EBITDA depends on execution across credit cards, prediction markets, and a nascent clearing layer. Analyst consensus on sector-wide valuation methodology does not exist, creating asymmetric risk for retail and institutional buyers betting on infrastructure thesis.
