XRP’s MVRV ratio has fallen to minus 47 percent, its lowest level since December 2020, alongside a bullish falling wedge pattern and XRP Ledger transaction volume spikes. These three technical and onchain indicators are being analyzed to project potential XRP price movement, according to analysis from Santiment and CryptoQuant.
The MVRV ratio, which measures market cap divided by realized cap, is a barometer of trader sentiment. Santiment noted that “historically, MVRV’s (average trading returns) will always average out to 0%, making this current level an extreme undervalued zone for $XRP.” The metric “often signal that the majority of panic selling has already occurred and downside risk becomes more limited compared to potential upside,” according to Santiment.
XRP’s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level historically aligned with accumulation zones and market bottoms. Late 2024 saw the Z-score fall to similar levels during a macro market bottom near $0.30, which preceded a 500 percent rally to above $3. XRP is currently down roughly 64 percent from its July 2025 multi-year high.
Transaction volume and technical setup
XRP Ledger transaction volume spiked in April, suggesting deep ecosystem activity and accumulation. TopNotchYJ, a CryptoQuant analyst, noted that “massive, vertical spikes in transaction counts serve as early network leading indicators, predating explosive price expansions.” Historical precedent supports this pattern. In November 2019, a transaction count surge preceded a nearly 1,200 percent rally from $0.15 to $1.79 by 2021. In July 2024, a transaction spike preceded a 600 percent gain from $0.50 to $3.17 by mid-2025.
XRP has been consolidating within a $1.30 to $1.50 accumulation zone since July 2025, when the asset began compressing within a bullish falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart. The lower boundary of the falling wedge sits near the $1.30 psychological support level, which TopNotchYJ described as “creating a stable macro floor.”
Weekly RSI has recovered from oversold conditions, suggesting sellers are losing momentum. A confirmed breakout above the wedge’s upper trendline at $1.50 could open the path to $3.10, representing a 134 percent price increase from current consolidation levels. Resistance zones sit at $1.40 to $1.60 on the daily chart.
Macro targets
TopNotchYJ offered a longer-term projection: “If history repeats and this current consolidation solidifies into a launchpad, a conservative 5x macro projection positions XRP’s next major target area between $7.50 and $8.00.”
Historical XRP rallies provide context for such projections. In 2021, XRP gained 1,050 percent. In 2023, the asset returned 215 percent. The 2022 year saw a 94 percent gain. The late 2024 rally from $0.30 to above $3 represented a 500 percent move. Weekly RSI recovery preceded a 660 percent rally between July and December 2024, while a mid-2022 RSI recovery preceded 95 percent gains.
Source did not specify current XRP price at time of analysis.
