Standard Chartered expects Ethena’s ENA token to rise about sevenfold to $2 by the end of 2028, according to the investment bank’s coverage initiated on the synthetic-dollar protocol. The forecast hinges on USDe supply expanding from its current $4.9 billion to $40 billion and Ethena directing 95% of net revenue toward ENA buybacks under its approved fee-switch framework.
ENA currently trades at $0.28. Standard Chartered projects the token will reach $0.42 by end of 2026 and $1.10 by end of 2027 before hitting the $2 target at year-end 2028.
The USDe Growth Thesis
USDe launched in late 2023 as a delta-neutral synthetic dollar, combining long spot crypto positions with short perpetual futures to capture funding payments. The stablecoin became one of crypto’s fastest-growing after launch, though supply fell to $4.9 billion from a peak exceeding $10 billion as funding rates compressed and the basis trade became more crowded.
Ethena has since broadened its yield sources beyond crypto basis trades. The protocol now draws from DeFi lending, institutional lending, liquid stablecoins, real-world assets, equities, and commodities. Standard Chartered’s model assumes a 6% protocol yield as an illustrative assumption, not a guaranteed return.
Fee-Switch Mechanics and Revenue Capture
Standard Chartered’s forecast assumes USDe must first cross a $7.5 billion threshold before the fee-switch mechanism begins generating buybacks. Once activated, the approved framework allocates 95% of qualifying net revenue to ENA purchases.
At the $7.5 billion USDe supply level, the protocol would capture approximately 5% of gross revenue. At $20 billion in USDe supply, that share rises to 20%. Standard Chartered estimates that at $40 billion USDe supply, the protocol would purchase ENA at a rate equivalent to approximately 23% of market value annually.
The bank points to Uniswap as an analog for the buyback model. After Uniswap’s fee-switch activation, UNI’s annualized buyback percentage settled around 3% to 4% of market value. Ethena’s higher projected buyback rate depends on achieving substantially larger USDe supply and revenue generation.
Broader Asset Growth Assumptions
Standard Chartered’s thesis assumes tokenized assets will reach $4 trillion by the end of 2028, up from approximately $350 billion currently. The bank also projects real-world assets on blockchains will grow to $2 trillion from $40 billion in the same period.
Ethena’s current strategies generate an estimated 5.2% blended yield across its mechanisms. Standard Chartered frames this against Bitcoin’s returns, noting Ethena targets yields 5 times higher than Bitcoin’s appreciation.
Structural Tensions
Standard Chartered’s model faces unresolved operational questions. The higher revenue-capture tiers assumed in the forecast have yet to be tested at the scale the bank expects. Additionally, directing 95% of protocol revenue to ENA buybacks reduces what remains available to sUSDe holders, creating tension between token buyback acceleration and the competitive yields needed to attract deposits and grow USDe supply in the first place.
