Real Vision founder Raoul Pal said capital is starting to rotate back into cryptocurrency from artificial intelligence stocks, citing a weakening US dollar as a potential catalyst for further gains in smart contract platforms.
“If they can engineer the dollar lower, then we get a green light for further movement in crypto,” Pal said. He added that a pause in AI stock rallies, including seven consecutive losing sessions for Nvidia in late August, coincided with Bitcoin’s roughly 25% surge to $80,000 between Aug. 19 and Aug. 25.
Pal, who co-founded Real Vision in 2014 after co-managing a global macro fund at GLG Partners and working in hedge fund sales at Goldman Sachs, has tracked macro conditions affecting crypto adoption since first buying Bitcoin in 2013. He applied a gold-based valuation framework to that initial purchase.
Macroeconomic Headwinds and Liquidity Concerns
The rotation narrative gained weight as the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29% in September and the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point in the same month. Pal cautioned, however, that liquidity remains constrained. “You can tell there’s this sort of rotation for liquidity that’s around right now, which means it’s not abundant yet,” he said. “Things don’t go bust if liquidity is plentiful.”
Pal tempered enthusiasm about near-term upside. “I don’t want to get overly excited, so I haven’t got a full green light on everything,” he said.
Ethereum and Solana Diverge on Activity and Capital
Pal addressed competing narratives about which smart contract platform will lead adoption cycles. Solana recorded approximately 3.2 million active addresses over a 24-hour period on Monday, while Ethereum recorded 387,000 addresses. Yet Ethereum’s decentralized finance protocols hold $54.4 billion in total value locked compared to Solana’s $6.7 billion.
Pal measures network comparison using “economic density”—total value locked divided by active users—a metric that favors Ethereum. He expressed skepticism toward Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani’s prediction that Solana would surpass Ethereum’s market capitalization this market cycle. “He needs to hold his horses a little bit,” Pal said, though he acknowledged the scenario was possible.
On the broader role of smart contract platforms in AI adoption, Pal said: “My guess is they’ll get more adoption over time as AI uses them.” He noted that Solana’s current user base differs from Ethereum’s. “Solana’s core activity is speculation. It’s just smaller clip sizes,” he said.
AI Agents and Stablecoin Infrastructure
Amazon Web Services introduced an AI agent payment feature in June that allows agents to pay for web content access using stablecoins. Coinbase handles payment verification through its x402 protocol, with USDC on Base supported. This infrastructure could enable the kind of adoption Pal envisions for Ethereum and Solana if capital flows materialize.
On Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory, Pal expressed confidence in six-figure valuations. “Does it make a million bucks? I don’t know, but certainly by 2032, yeah, I don’t have an issue with that,” he said.
