Polymarket is pursuing regulatory approval to launch in Japan by 2030, appointing Mike Eidlin—formerly Jupiter’s Japan head—to lead the lobbying campaign despite the country’s strict gambling laws that currently restrict online betting to government-authorized activities like horse racing and lotteries. The move signals aggressive international expansion even as the prediction market platform faces declining trading volumes and mounting regulatory pressure across multiple jurisdictions.
Japan’s Regulatory Fortress
Japan permits betting only on government-sanctioned activities, with gambling law violations carrying fines up to $3,400 and prison sentences of up to 3 years for repeat offenses. The country’s gambling framework is among the world’s most restrictive for decentralized financial products. Polymarket currently lists Japan among 35 restricted jurisdictions, yet maintains a substantial community presence with over 53,000 followers on its Japan-focused X account. This disconnect—between official restrictions and active user engagement—reveals the platform’s existing foothold despite legal barriers. Eidlin’s appointment suggests Polymarket is escalating from passive community building to formal regulatory negotiation.
Headwinds Mount for Prediction Markets
Polymarket’s Japan push arrives as the prediction market sector faces intensifying regulatory scrutiny globally. In April 2026, Polymarket’s trading volume fell 15% month-over-month, according to Token Terminal data, while rival Kalshi logged a 13% volume increase over the same period. India recently moved to restrict prediction markets entirely, issuing blocking orders against Kalshi. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is actively suing prediction market operators over regulatory compliance. Polymarket already operates in 34 blocked jurisdictions, with 4 countries implementing “close-only” restrictions that prevent new user onboarding. The Japan expansion represents a counteroffensive against shrinking addressable markets and competitive losses.
The Lobbying Gambit
Eidlin’s background at Jupiter, a major decentralized exchange operator, positions him to navigate Japan’s institutional finance corridors. Polymarket stated it has observed “meaningful organic interest from users” in Japan and Asia, and is “always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways.” No official timeline for regulatory submission has been disclosed beyond the 2030 target. Japanese regulators have not publicly commented on any Polymarket application or expansion proposals, leaving the lobbying strategy’s actual scope and specific legislative amendments unclear.
The 2030 Question
A four-year regulatory window is unusually long for jurisdictional entry. It suggests either conservative timeline-setting or expectation that Japan’s gambling framework requires legislative reform rather than administrative approval. Polymarket’s success hinges on convincing Japanese policymakers that prediction markets differ materially from traditional gambling—a distinction many regulators globally reject. The appointment of Eidlin and the public Japan targeting may serve dual purposes: signaling institutional credibility to Japanese authorities while reassuring investors that Polymarket can still grow despite U.S. and European headwinds.
