Crypto analyst Kabuki, who correctly identified Bitcoin’s $126,000 peak in October 2025 and $15,000 bottom in November 2022, is forecasting a sharp decline to $40,000-$41,000 around June 2026. The prediction comes as Bitcoin trades between $78,474 and $82,000 after being rejected above the $82,000 level, triggering what analysts describe as a major downtrend within a broader bull trap structure.
Kabuki’s Track Record and Current Setup
Kabuki’s previous calls carry weight in trader circles. The analyst correctly timed Bitcoin’s October 2025 top above $126,000 and its November 2022 cycle bottom at $15,000, establishing credibility for long-term macro forecasts. Kabuki describes Bitcoin’s current price structure as “a downward zigzag pattern known to signal a cycle bottom,” suggesting the decline path will move through intermediate levels before reaching the $40,000-$41,000 floor.
The projected trajectory involves multiple stops: $79,000, $61,000, $47,000, a bounce to $55,000, and finally the $41,000 target. This represents a potential 40%+ loss from current price levels and would erase gains from the recent bull run that peaked in October 2025.
Competing Timelines and Near-Term Corrections
Not all analysts align on timing. Chiefy, another crypto expert, has suggested Bitcoin could dump to $51,000 within 12 days of May 17, 2026—a more aggressive near-term call than Kabuki’s June bottom. Chiefy characterizes Bitcoin as “currently stuck in the longest and final bull trap of its present bear market cycle,” implying the correction phase is already underway.
The rejection above $82,000 has triggered expected declines toward $70,000 in the near term, according to multiple analysts. This near-term weakness aligns with the broader bearish structure both analysts are tracking, though their final cycle bottoms differ by about $10,000.
Cycle Dynamics and Market Structure
The bull trap narrative reflects a common pattern in Bitcoin cycles: a sharp rally that fails to sustain, followed by a multi-month correction that wipes out late-cycle buyers. Kabuki’s June 2026 bottom would place the cycle bottom roughly 8 months from the October 2025 peak, consistent with historical Bitcoin cycle timings.
Counterarguments exist. Exchange reserves remain at 8-year lows, which some analysts cite as a potential bullish signal for long-term accumulation. However, this macro indicator has not prevented the near-term price weakness or shifted consensus among prediction-focused analysts toward a sustained rally.
What Happens After the Crash
Kabuki’s framework explicitly positions the $40,000-$41,000 level as a cycle bottom, implying a sustained recovery would follow. The analyst expects this low to mark the end of the current bear cycle and the beginning of the next bull phase. Traders and institutions watching these levels will likely establish positions ahead of June 2026 if the forecast holds, making the final crash a critical inflection point for the next cycle.
