Cryptocurrency firm argues global refinancing pressure and monetary policy shifts could favor Bitcoin outside government systems
Bitwise is looking past Bitcoin’s recent slide and toward a much larger pressure point: close to $30 trillion in global debt that needs refinancing in 2026.
The cryptocurrency asset management firm published analysis on June 1 framing Bitcoin as an asset that sits outside government balance sheets and does not depend on a central issuer, giving it a different role when sovereign borrowing becomes harder to manage. Bitwise linked Bitcoin’s appeal to real interest rates, stating the asset has tended to do better when real yields fall.
The macroeconomic case rests on a specific confluence. Bitwise said a mix of sticky inflation and a pause from the Federal Reserve could help set up conditions favoring Bitcoin. Higher Japanese government bond yields and an International Monetary Fund warning about waning demand for government debt were cited as potential market pressures that could redirect capital toward assets outside traditional government systems.
Bitcoin traded at $69,460 at the time of writing, down 4.7% in the last 24 hours after slipping from a May peak of $83,000. The asset has oscillated between support at $73,000 and resistance in the $78,000 to $80,000 band, which Bitwise called the market’s main dividing line determining whether traders view the market as healthy or fragile. The $83,000 to $85,000 zone represents the first major ceiling, with $95,000 as the next upside target.
May saw mixed signals. Bitcoin ETFs experienced $1.42 billion in weekly outflows to close the month, yet the broader Bitcoin ETP market saw $166.5 million in net inflows during the prior month. Long-term holders added 125,000 BTC during that period, and currently hold 14.85 million BTC, representing 73% of circulating supply. Bitwise noted that 60% of Bitcoin has not moved in more than a year, with 48.5% inactive for more than two years and 33% untouched for at least five years, indicating tight supply conditions.
Bitwise argued Bitcoin still looks cheap relative to major U.S. tech stocks, citing Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio below its long-run average versus Nasdaq 100’s price-to-book near record highs. The firm’s analysis suggests that if central banks respond to debt refinancing stress with liquidity measures, Bitcoin’s positioning outside government systems could become a material advantage for portfolio allocation.
The thesis depends on whether institutional and retail investors view the debt refinancing cycle as a credible catalyst for monetary policy shifts that favor assets uncorrelated to sovereign creditworthiness.
