Bitcoin has followed its current script before. According to crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader, it may be doing so again—and if history holds, the next move depends entirely on whether BTC holds above $78,000. The analyst applies a six-step framework from the 2021 cycle to current market conditions, projecting a potential crash to $45,000-$59,000 unless the critical support level holds.
The Six-Step Framework and Current Position
Merlijn The Trader’s analysis maps Bitcoin’s price action to six distinct phases observed in 2021: distribution, small consolidation, redistribution, accumulation, re-accumulation, and final rally. According to the framework, Steps 1 through 3 have already completed. The redistribution phase began in late January 2026 and accelerated when Bitcoin broke below $77,000 on May 18, 2026. The analyst argues that Step 4—a sharp accumulation crash—is the next logical phase unless price action deviates from the historical pattern. Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,060 in October 2025 before entering the current correction cycle.
The $78,000 Support Line: Make or Break
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $77,500, hovering just below the critical $78,000 support level. This level is not arbitrary. According to Merlijn The Trader’s framework, if BTC holds above $78,000 for multiple weeks, Step 4 is skipped entirely, and the cycle advances directly to re-accumulation and the major upside rally. If support breaks decisively, the analyst projects Bitcoin could fall to the $45,000-$59,000 accumulation range—representing a 42% decline from current levels to $45,000, or a 23.8% drop to $59,000. The framework treats $78,000 as the pivotal threshold between a crash scenario and a direct continuation upward.
Market Data and On-Chain Context
On-chain analytics from CryptoQuant show that approximately 63% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit, suggesting significant room for price weakness before forcing capitulation. Bitcoinist reported the analyst’s warning alongside the broader context: “Bitcoin has followed its current script before.” The timing of the breakdown below $77,000 in May 2026 aligns with the redistribution phase in the analyst’s model, adding credibility to the framework’s predictive utility. However, the framework remains unverified by independent analysis and carries no guarantee of accuracy.
Implications for the Current Cycle
If the six-step framework holds, Bitcoin faces a binary outcome. A sustained hold above $78,000 would signal a deviation from the 2021 pattern and suggest immediate re-accumulation phase entry—potentially avoiding the painful crash entirely. Conversely, a break below this level could trigger the predicted accumulation phase, forcing weaker holders to capitulate and allowing stronger hands to accumulate at lower prices. The framework suggests that regardless of outcome, significant volatility is ahead. The next critical milestone is whether Bitcoin maintains $78,000 support over the coming weeks.
