Bitcoin is confronting roughly 880,000 BTC of breakeven supply concentrated between $77,500 and $80,300, according to analysis by Bitfinex. The cluster represents approximately $68 billion in cost-basis value that could release sellers as prices move through the zone.
Bitfinex analysts tied the breakeven selling activity primarily to investors who accumulated Bitcoin around February and March. Bitcoin’s long-term holder SOPR has moved around 1 for nine consecutive sessions, indicating coins are being moved at roughly the same price at which they were acquired. This pattern has not resembled capitulation, according to the analysis.
Corporate Buying Meets Resistance
Strategy, a corporate Bitcoin buyer, purchased 4,603 BTC between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30 for $369.7 million, bringing its total holdings to 845,050 BTC. The company’s average purchase price of $80,318 placed its buying directly inside the zone where Bitcoin has repeatedly struggled to hold gains. Strategy paid above every Bitcoin daily close since May 14.
The timing placed Strategy’s accumulation amid volatile price action. On Aug. 27, Bitcoin closed at $80,256. The following day, Bitcoin recorded a $201.9 million outflow in spot ETFs while reaching highs above $81,000. Several days after Aug. 27, Bitcoin closed at $77,468.
ETF Demand Cools After Strong Run
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.04 billion in inflows during a nine-session streak, but demand cooled afterward. On Aug. 28, the day Bitcoin hit above $81,000, spot ETFs recorded a $201.9 million outflow. That was followed by a $216.7 million inflow, then a $236.5 million withdrawal on Sept. 1.
Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks helped knock Bitcoin from its Aug. 28 high above $81,000. Bitcoin was trading at $77,890 as of press time, according to CryptoSlate reporting.
Options Market Positioning
Options traders are preparing for the balance between corporate and ETF demand to fail. The Sept. 11 options expiry has one put outstanding for every call, compared with a put-call ratio of 0.56 across the broader options market. Downside options positions are concentrated between $68,000 and $75,000.
On-chain metrics show supply conditions shifting. On Aug. 27, 72.1% of Bitcoin supply was in profit. Several days later, that figure had fallen to 67.7%. Bitcoin’s True Market Mean stands at $76,350. Price levels requiring absorption include $82,818, which would need two daily closes for confirmation, and $85,200 as the next on-chain cost-basis level. A potential breakdown could occur at $76,657, with support at $73,500.
Volatility and Historical Context
Bitcoin’s implied volatility stands at 37.2, ranking at the 18th percentile. Bitcoin recorded a 24% weekly gain that ended Aug. 23. Since 2020, Bitcoin has posted 17 weekly gains exceeding 15%. Of those instances, Bitcoin was higher 30 days later in 14 cases, with a median return of 8.4% thirty days after such gains.
