Bitcoin bulls renewed pressure on range highs as the asset briefly touched $87,000 on weak U.S. jobs data, with the 2026 yearly open of $87,570 now forming the next key resistance to break through.
The cryptocurrency’s highest weekly close since late January stood at $86,532 on Bitstamp as of October 5. According to Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst, “Bitcoin continues to be sandwiched between the ~ $82500 key support and the ~ $86700 resistance ahead.” A decisive move above $86,700 would open a higher range targeting $93,700, while liquidation clusters at $85,500 and $83,700 continue to dictate volatility on lower time frames.
Bond market dynamics have emerged as the primary driver of price action. Last week, 10-year and 30-year yields hit 5.34% and 5.69% respectively, levels unseen since 2002. The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, noted that “the bond market is in the spotlight this week.” Yields dropped modestly following weak nonfarm payrolls data on October 2 before rebounding to erase most of the decline.
Federal Reserve policy expectations have whipsawed sharply. The Fed voted to increase interest rates by 0.25% at the September FOMC meeting. One week prior to October 5, odds of another 0.25% hike at the October FOMC meeting reached 70% before collapsing to 18%. Consensus still favors a December hike, though market participants remain divided on the timing and magnitude of further tightening.
Timothy Chubb, chief investment officer at Girard Advisory Services, said “I think that’s the right move because I don’t think this report necessarily changes the story for the Fed,” referring to lower-than-expected August PCE data that failed to shift inflation expectations.
October Seasonality and Near-Term Technicals
Bitcoin’s first three days of October have historically been its weakest three-day stretch of the month, averaging a 0.66% decline. The 2026 performance has already diverged from this pattern. As of October 3, Bitcoin posted a 1.4% gain in the first three days of October, bringing month-to-date upside to 2.7%.
Andrew Kamsky, a contributor to CryptoQuant, observed that “Bitcoin’s first three days of October have historically been its weakest three-day stretch of the month, averaging a 0.66% decline. 2026 has already held up better.” October has averaged 18.7% gains since 2013 across 13 years of data, though only three of those months were negative, with the largest October decline at -13% in 2014.
The current rally follows a strong Q3 2026, with Bitcoin posting 40% gains over the three-month period. This performance echoes 2017, the last bull market with comparable Q3 gains. If October continues at the 18.7% historical average, the asset would approach $100,000 before month-end.
Key data points ahead include the Consumer Price Index release on October 14 and the Federal Reserve’s publication of September FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for Wednesday, October 8, alongside a 10-year note auction that could influence bond yields and cascade into cryptocurrency markets.
