Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Monday as U.S. military strikes on Iran triggered sharp increases in oil prices, dollar strength, and Treasury yields, reducing appetite for risk assets across equities and crypto.
The decline came after U.S. Central Command strikes on Iran began at 5 p.m. ET on July 12, targeting Iran’s ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin traded near $62,774 in early Monday trading, down 1.9% over 24 hours, with a daily low of $62,565.
Oil markets surged on the geopolitical tension. Brent crude climbed to $79.59 per barrel, up 4.7%, while U.S. crude rose to $74.85, up 4.8%. The dollar gauge increased 0.1%, and Treasury yields moved higher: the two-year yield hit 4.23% and the ten-year reached 4.58%.
Broader equities retreated alongside crypto. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, Dow futures declined 0.4%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 1.3%.
Support Levels and Recovery Conditions
Bitcoin’s $60,000 support level came under pressure as the asset tested lower ground. A sustained break below the $62,565 daily low would remove the market’s nearest support cushion. Recovery above $64,300, the local high, would signal a range swing.
According to Glassnode analysis, Bitcoin’s $60,000 support may require the dollar index (DXY) to fall below 99 or ten-year yields to approach 4.2% before recovery can firm. Rising oil prices, dollar strength, and higher Treasury yields make alternative assets like cash and bonds more attractive, pulling investors from risk assets.
Market Positioning
Prediction markets reflect uncertainty around Bitcoin’s near-term price path. The probability of Bitcoin touching $60,000 in July stood at 57.5%, while the probability of reaching $65,000 in the same period was 65%.
Thin weekend trading, fund flows, and crypto-specific selling contributed to Bitcoin’s decline alongside the geopolitical factors. The combination of macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical tension compressed risk appetite across multiple asset classes.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin fall below $63,000?
Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on Monday as U.S. military strikes on Iran triggered sharp increases in oil prices, dollar strength, and Treasury yields, reducing appetite for risk assets.
What price levels are key for Bitcoin's recovery?
Bitcoin's $60,000 support came under pressure; a break below the $62,565 daily low would remove nearest support, while recovery above $64,300 would signal a range swing.
What do prediction markets show for Bitcoin in July?
Prediction markets put the probability of Bitcoin touching $60,000 in July at 57.5%, and the probability of reaching $65,000 in the same period at 65%.
