Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value metric is now displaying the same bearish structure that preceded the 2018 bear market bottom, according to on-chain analysis shared by market watchers Crypto Chan and Kabuki. BTC rejected resistance at $82,000 on Friday and has since retreated to $78,044, a 0.51% daily decline. The MVRV ratio currently stands at 1.51, down from a recent peak but still above the 1.14 low reached earlier in the cycle—a pattern that echoes 2018’s 1.15 trough before a 1.63 rebound preceded the final capitulation.
MVRV Metric Signals Extended Correction Ahead
The MVRV ratio measures market sentiment by comparing Bitcoin’s market cap to the realized price at which coins last moved on-chain. A reading above 1.0 suggests overvaluation; below 1.0 indicates undervaluation. Crypto Chan’s analysis highlights that in 2018, the metric declined to 1.15, then rebounded to 1.63 before the market rolled over into a prolonged downswing. The current cycle has mirrored this trajectory: MVRV fell to 1.14 and rebounded to 1.51. Crypto Chan concluded that Bitcoin is now “in the initial stages of another prolonged price correction, likely heading to an ‘actual’ price bottom.” This technical parallel suggests the rally from the $60,000 cycle low may be reversing into a deeper correction phase.
Technical Breakdown Targets Major Support Levels
Kabuki, another prominent on-chain analyst, has mapped a bearish head-and-shoulders formation on Bitcoin’s weekly chart. The predicted support cascade identifies four key levels: $70,000, $61,000, $55,000, and $47,000, with an ultimate target near $41,000. At press time, BTC was trading $7,000 above the first support zone, giving bulls limited margin for error. Bitcoin’s market cap remains at $1.56 trillion, ranking it the 12th largest asset globally. The five-week rally that drove prices from $60,000 to $82,000 appears to have exhausted demand at resistance, setting up the conditions Kabuki outlined for a systematic breakdown through multiple support levels.
On-Chain Weakness Extends Beyond Bitcoin Price
The technical deterioration has already impacted major Bitcoin holders. Metaplanet, a publicly traded company with significant BTC exposure, reported a $728 million quarterly loss as holdings depreciated. This reflects broader market stress among institutions that accumulated during the bull phase. The confluence of MVRV divergence, head-and-shoulders formation completion, and support level breakdown suggests the market is transitioning from correction into a deeper bear phase. Whether Bitcoin finds support at Kabuki’s predicted levels or continues to the $41,000 target will determine the severity and duration of the drawdown ahead.
Critical Watch: $70,000 Holds or Breaks
The immediate test for Bitcoin bulls is the $70,000 support level identified by Kabuki. A breakdown below this zone would validate the head-and-shoulders thesis and likely accelerate momentum toward $61,000 and lower. Crypto Chan’s MVRV analysis suggests the market structure mirrors 2018’s final capitulation phase, implying further downside before an “actual” bottom forms. The next 48 hours will be decisive—if BTC cannot stabilize above $70,000, the path to $41,000 becomes increasingly probable.
