On-Chain Pattern Mirrors Previous Market Lows
Bitcoin is trading at $63,362 as of August 12, down roughly 50% from its October cycle high of $126,080. On-chain data suggests the cryptocurrency may be approaching a macro bottom, a pattern historically linked to major reversals.
Long-term holders’ adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) has crossed into negative territory below the broader market average, according to analysis by MorenoDV. This metric tracks whether the cohort of holders with the strongest conviction is sitting on losses deeper than the average market participant.
“At each major cycle bottom, long-term holders were sitting on deeper unrealized losses than the broader market, meaning the cohort normally associated with the strongest conviction and lowest sensitivity to volatility is carrying greater unrealized stress than the market as a whole. The current structure fits that pattern,” MorenoDV said.
CryptoQuant, the blockchain data firm, has highlighted this dynamic as a signal worth monitoring. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin’s long-term holder losses have not yet reached the “depression territory” extremes seen in previous cycles. The cryptocurrency could require additional capitulation before a true bottom forms, or it could stabilize with less damage if institutional demand strengthens.
Bitcoin-Gold Correlation Shifts Sharply Upward
Bitcoin’s behavior relative to gold has undergone a notable reversal. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has moved from -0.9 in early 2026 to +0.7 as of August 12. The shift suggests Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a safe-haven asset alongside gold rather than as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, described the current price environment as reflecting “digital-gold-era levels.” Bitcoin’s volatility, however, continues to run substantially higher than gold’s, limiting the comparison.
The positive correlation between Bitcoin and gold is not inherently bullish. The two assets can fall together as easily as they rise together. Bitcoin sometimes trades in step with the Nasdaq as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset and at other times tracks gold as a scarcity play, depending on broader market conditions.
Cautious Interpretation
Bitcoin declined 2% over the past week. The on-chain pattern and correlation shift present signals rather than certainties. Analysts emphasize that calling a bottom definitively remains premature, particularly given the historical precedent of deeper losses in previous cycles.
