Bitcoin held above $62,000 on Thursday as renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and sent crude oil prices sharply higher, reigniting inflation concerns that had eased after the two countries agreed to halt attacks and resume talks.
The escalation reversed a period of relative calm. Oil prices had softened after the US and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing concern about Persian Gulf export constraints. That agreement now appears fragile.
Tanker Traffic Collapses
On Wednesday, Brent crude settled 5.2% higher at $78.02 a barrel and briefly topped $80 during the session. The price move reflected a sharp drop in shipping activity through one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Only 14 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, compared with an average of 34 daily tanker crossings in the three weeks following the ceasefire, according to data reviewed by the publication. On Thursday, only one tanker was seen moving through the Strait earlier in the day. Four oil and liquefied natural gas tankers turned back after attempting passage, including three empty LNG carriers bound for Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal.
The disruption followed US strikes on Iranian targets after Washington said commercial vessels had been attacked while transiting the Strait. Iranian media reported explosions along the country’s southern coast and said strikes hit Iranian-controlled islands in the Gulf. President Trump said on Truth Social that the strikes were retaliation for attacks on ships and warned that further Iranian action would bring a stronger response.
Inflation Risk Returns
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said the disruption signals deeper vulnerability in regional stability. “The disruption is a reminder that the Strait never fully reopened and that the recent removal of the geopolitical risk premium may have been premature,” Hansen said.
The return of oil-price pressure matters for Bitcoin because it challenges the narrative markets had adopted in recent weeks. Investors had been leaning toward the view that softer inflation and weaker growth would give the Federal Reserve room to ease monetary policy. Higher oil prices threaten that outlook.
CryptoQuant analysts noted that Brent crude’s move above its annual average has historically coincided with tougher conditions for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency traded above $62,000 on Thursday, holding the $60,000 support level traders have watched since last month’s selloff, but the geopolitical shock underscores the fragility of that floor.
Bitcoin did not trade consistently with gold during periods of stress. Its price remains closely tied to liquidity, positioning, and monetary policy expectations. The cryptocurrency also experienced a difficult June marked by weaker fund demand, rising exchange supply, and tighter liquidity conditions.
Russia’s diesel export ban added additional pressure to global fuel markets, compounding the supply shock from the Strait disruption.
