US spot Bitcoin funds record persistent net outflows, signaling structural selling pressure
Bitcoin is sliding into a high-risk environment due to continued institutional selling, primarily from US spot exchange-traded funds, according to crypto analytics platform Swissblock. The firm’s proprietary risk index reached 33 out of 100 on Tuesday, May 26, 2026, reflecting a sharp reversal from the strong accumulation period that characterized March and April.
US Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows on nearly every trading day since May 7, representing a persistent institutional sell signal running more than two weeks. Spot ETF flows have posted more than $2 billion in outflows over the past two weeks, according to Jeff Ko, chief analyst at crypto exchange CoinEx. This steady drain of capital marks a structural shift in market dynamics.
Swissblock’s risk index measures the relative balance between selling and buying pressure in Bitcoin markets. After the strong accumulation phase ended in April, May shifted decisively into a distribution phase. “Every time the Risk Index signals that selling pressure is structurally overwhelming the market, what sits underneath is institutional distribution,” Swissblock stated. The analytics firm warned that “the risk index can continue accelerating higher.”
On-chain analytics provider Glassnode echoed the concern. “This steady drip of outflow continues to add to the supply side without a visible demand offset,” Glassnode said. The absence of institutional bid support through spot ETFs removes a traditional floor for Bitcoin price action, leaving the market vulnerable to further downside pressure.
Bitcoin has remained range-bound for almost four months, oscillating within a narrow band despite multiple catalysts. On Tuesday, the price declined roughly 1 percent following US Central Command strikes on Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to place mines. Bitcoin fell from $77,000 to $76,500 on Coinbase in the immediate aftermath.
However, Ko suggested the market’s reaction to geopolitical escalation may prove temporary. “Despite Washington’s latest ‘self-defence’ operation, the very short-term market reaction may still lean risk-on, particularly as investors appear to be looking through the geopolitical noise and focusing on the possibility of a US-Iran peace deal,” Ko said. He added that Bitcoin “remains in a holding pattern.”
The divergence between geopolitical risk and market sentiment underscores a deeper structural problem: without institutional ETF inflows to absorb selling pressure, Bitcoin’s price discovery mechanism depends increasingly on spot market depth and retail participation. Swissblock’s 33 risk index score signals that this absorption capacity has deteriorated significantly.
The timing of ETF outflows coincides with a broader reassessment of institutional risk appetite. Ko’s observation that “institutional risk appetite is still sensitive at the margin” suggests large holders remain cautious despite the lack of major negative fundamental news. The combination of persistent outflows, elevated risk metrics, and range-bound price action creates a fragile equilibrium vulnerable to either a fresh catalyst or a shift in fund flows.
