Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Wednesday as US and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending their conflict, a move that sent US equities to fresh all-time highs and oil prices to one-month lows.
The divergence marked a sharp reversal from Bitcoin’s typical safe-haven behavior. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq surged on news of the deal, which includes reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, BTC shed 1.2% on the day. WTI crude oil plummeted to $87.77 per barrel, its lowest point since April 22, as markets priced in reduced geopolitical risk.
Daan Crypto Trades, a prominent trader, captured the confusion in real time: “$BTC Indecisive whether to join stocks or commodities today.” The comment reflected Bitcoin’s unusual positioning as equities rallied on risk-off sentiment while crude collapsed on the same news.
The US-Iran memorandum outlines a 60-day negotiation period. According to The Kobeissi Letter, “If a final deal is reached within 60 days, this agreement will be approved in the form of a binding UN Security Council resolution.” The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly one-third of global maritime oil trade, immediately pressured energy prices and appeared to weigh on risk assets including Bitcoin.
Technical analysts flagged multiple pressure points below current levels. CGT Trader identified a large liquidation cluster around 74,000 that could pull price downward, while noting that “Although most of the liquidity is currently sitting above us, it’s spread out pretty evenly, which doesn’t give a clear target for an upside sweep. Meanwhile, below us there’s a large liquidation cluster around 74k that could pull price toward it.”
The same trader acknowledged upside risk but leaned bearish: “An upside sweep can’t be ruled out, but imo continuation to the downside is still more likely.” Exitpump, a trading commentator, labeled the setup “weak and bearish,” with potential targets as low as $72,000. Other traders cited $70,000 as a possible next local low.
Material Indicators flagged a potential death cross involving the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages, a bearish technical signal. However, Eric Coleman, an analyst, offered a contrarian view, stating that “As long as the price is above the horizontal and the trendline support, the trend remains bullish,” interpreting current price action as a retest of an ascending triangle’s top.
Bitcoin’s weakness on a day of broad equity strength underscored its shifting role in portfolios. Recent weeks have seen BTC move in the opposite direction to US stocks, a pattern that intensified Wednesday as traders reassessed exposure to risk assets in light of reduced geopolitical tensions.
