Bitcoin rose 1.57% to $86,152.75 on October 2 after the U.S. jobs report showed 29,000 positions added in September, far below the 84,000 economists expected. The weak data compressed Federal Reserve rate-hike odds for October to 14%, down from 70% earlier in the week, according to CME FedWatch.
The September employment figure also included a combined downward revision of 60,000 jobs to the prior two months. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%. Weaker economic data typically reduces the case for aggressive monetary tightening, which can support risk assets including Bitcoin.
Bitcoin intraday peaked at $87,173.15, moving within 1.4% of the September high of $87,354.33, a key resistance level. The asset opened at $84,824.05 and posted an intraday low of $84,492.18. The climb from the $74,977.57 swing low to the September high represents a 16.5% advance.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point on September 16 in a unanimous vote, lifting the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. New York Fed President John Williams said there was “no need for urgency” regarding further increases. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated that “policymakers may need more time before deciding whether to raise rates again.” The next Fed meeting is scheduled for October 28.
Prediction markets reflected the shift in rate expectations. CME FedWatch showed 80% odds of a Fed hold on October 28, while Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad also tracked rate-hike probabilities. A December rate hike remained the market’s base case despite the softer employment data.
Crypto markets broadly benefited from the employment miss. The total crypto market cap climbed above $3 trillion, gaining 2.5% in 24 hours. Bitcoin dominance stood at 59.1%. The Fear and Greed Index registered 71, indicating greed sentiment.
Technical indicators showed strength. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reading of 41.8 exceeded the 25 threshold for confirming a trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 68.1, approaching but not yet reaching the 70 overbought level. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator read 2.2, and Bitcoin’s price positioned itself 78.4% into its band range.
Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled $102 million on the day. CoinGecko and TradingView tracked the price movements, while Jupiter provided USDT trading liquidity. Yields remained elevated despite the softer jobs data.
