Composite trend signal reverses sharply from May highs as exchange inflows accelerate
Bitcoin’s composite trend signal has shifted back into a “high bear” zone following a sharp three-week reversal from May highs around $82,500, according to analysis tracking miner behavior and spot market dynamics.
On May 18, miners transferred roughly 21,000 BTC to Binance, marking a significant deposit event. Binance’s total BTC reserves climbed from approximately 618,600 on May 6 to nearly 634,000 by May 26, a net increase of around 15,400 BTC over the three-week period.
“Large miner deposits to exchanges typically signal potential selling as miners convert holdings to cover operating costs,” said Amr Taha, analyst. The May 18 transfer ranks as a major inflow event, though it trails the second-largest miner-to-exchange movement this year: 23,150 BTC sent on February 5.
Bitcoin currently trades just above the $74,500 support band, which aligns with the lower boundary of its 21-day Donchian channel. The price has repeatedly failed to break past the $80,000 to $81,000 range, forming what technical analysts describe as a head-and-shoulders pattern on the daily chart. The most recent lower high sits at $78,000.
Spot volume delta has slipped back into net sell-side territory after Bitcoin was rejected near the low $80,000s, according to Glassnode data. Daily RSI reading is below 50, reflecting limited strength during recent price recoveries. The realized profit/loss ratio stands at 1.56, well below the two to five range associated with stronger bull market conditions.
Despite Binance absorbing the large miner inflows, no aggressive sell-off followed, a pattern that underscores weak spot market demand. Axel Adler Jr., a researcher tracking these dynamics, has identified $74,500 as a critical support level, with $70,400 marking the next major support zone below that band. The $75,000 zone is being watched closely across analytical frameworks.
The convergence of rising miner exchange deposits, weakening spot volume signals, and repeated rejection near $80,000 to $81,000 has repositioned Bitcoin within a bearish technical structure. The absence of buying demand strong enough to absorb miner selling pressure suggests the downward pressure may persist unless spot volume reverses into net buy-side territory.
