Structural put advantage keeps Bitcoin pinned below $74,000 ahead of May 31 settlement
Bitcoin retested $72,500 on Thursday for the first time in six weeks, triggering $342 million in liquidations for bullish leveraged positions as bears maintain a structural advantage ahead of Friday’s $9 billion options expiry.
The put-to-call volume ratio stood at 0.8 on Thursday, with $1.57 billion in calls traded against $1.29 billion in puts. Despite the numerical imbalance, puts carry outsized leverage: $1.05 billion in put options are targeting $74,000 or higher, while only $306 million in calls remain in the money if Bitcoin stays below that level. Even if Bitcoin reclaims $74,000, puts maintain a $265 million advantage over calls, according to options analytics from Laevitas.
Deribit, which controls 70% market share for the May monthly options expiry, shows $3.4 billion in call options open interest against $2.91 billion in puts. The concentration of bearish bets reflects broader market headwinds: US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered $1.07 billion in net outflows over two days, while corporate holders have retreated from accumulation.
Sequans Communications announced plans to fully liquidate its Bitcoin holdings, abandoning its previous accumulation strategy. Publicly traded mining firms and Trump Media and Technology Group have recently scaled back their Bitcoin exposure, adding selling pressure alongside the options expiry mechanics.
Bitcoin broke below $78,000 on May 17, catching bulls off guard. Thursday’s retest of $72,500 bounced to $73,500, but the relief proved temporary as bears consolidated their positioning ahead of the 8:00 am UTC Friday settlement.
Longer-dated options signal diminished conviction in upside recovery. The $80,000 June call option, expiring June 26, trades at 0.0103 BTC (approximately $757) and implies only an 18% probability of Bitcoin trading above that level within 28 days. That pricing reflects the market’s assessment of sustained downward pressure even after Friday’s expiry clears.
Put options volume typically spikes only when traders anticipate severe negative surprises; current volume does not show this pattern. Instead, the bearish structure appears driven by technical breakdown below $78,000 and forced liquidations rather than panic hedging, suggesting bears are systematically defending lower prices rather than bracing for a crash.
