Bitcoin is trading “massively below” its fair value relative to global money supply, according to a May 27, 2026 analysis by crypto trader RobynHD, who argues the divergence represents a historical mispricing event.
RobynHD, a YouTuber and trader, published analysis on X showing Bitcoin’s relationship to M2 money supply has broken down dramatically. “Bitcoin is currently trading at a level that has historically almost always been erroneous, because it’s massively below its global liquidity fair value,” RobynHD said. The trader added: “If the BTC/liquidity relationship is still intact, then BTC is currently being completely mispriced.”
The analysis uses a Z-score framework to measure Bitcoin’s deviation from its expected price trajectory based on historical M2 correlation. RobynHD flagged that the BTC/XAU ratio has fallen below its fair value line at negative 2 sigma bands, a threshold the trader described as unprecedented. “A Z-score near -2 has never occurred historically and points to the point of maximum mispricing,” RobynHD stated.
Bitcoin has historically performed best during periods of sustained money-supply growth. Global M2 is currently at all-time highs, yet Bitcoin has not moved proportionally, creating the gap bulls cite as evidence of undervaluation. The M2 bull case calls for an “aggressive repricing” event as Bitcoin catches up with global liquidity trends.
However, the correlation framework faces pushback from skeptics. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, questioned the methodology’s foundation. “There is no daily M2 data, and most of the cbio in that series is China, whose M2 is basically always increasing,” Moreno said, implying the correlation may be flawed from its design stage.
Timing inconsistencies also weaken the M2 predictive case. Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst, noted that Bitcoin peaked in its Bull Market in November 2021, but global M2 continued rising for five months afterward, topping out in April 2022. This lag contradicts the idea that M2 peaks reliably predict Bitcoin price peaks.
Cryptic Trades, a trading account, highlighted another timing problem. “In 2022, M2 topped after Bitcoin hit its real bottom around $18K. If you’d waited for M2 to peak, you would’ve sold the lows,” the account observed, underscoring the dangers of using M2 as a timing tool.
The debate reflects deeper disagreement over Bitcoin’s fair value in 2026. While RobynHD and other bulls argue the M2 relationship remains intact and points to significant upside, critics contend the correlation is too unstable and data-limited to support aggressive repricing claims. Andre Dragosch, Bitwise’s European head of research, has contributed analysis supporting the undervaluation thesis, though the exact methodology remains unclear.
Crypto markets have diverged from equities, which continue posting record highs in May 2026, adding another layer of complexity to the fair value debate.
