Bitcoin Supply in Profit Drops to 61%, Below Bull Market Threshold

BTC holders’ unrealized gains weaken as price struggles near $77,000

Bitcoin’s percentage of supply held in profit has fallen to around 61%, dropping below the 75% threshold historically maintained during bull market phases, according to market analysis from Darkfost, a verified CryptoQuant author.

The decline signals a shift in holder sentiment. When Bitcoin’s price dropped below $60,000, the supply in profit contracted to 51.1%. Bear market periods have historically shown approximately 45% of supply retained at a loss, meaning the current 61% figure sits between typical bull and bear market ranges.

The $80,000 level has emerged as a critical resistance point. According to the analysis, this price represents the Short-Term Holders’ Cost Basis and has acted as major resistance since early October. Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,360 on the 1D chart, with $77,000 representing a key threshold where BTC is struggling. The $82,000 level marks a price point where BTC was previously rejected.

Darkfost emphasized the relationship between profitability and holder behavior. “For investors to remain more inclined to hold their BTC, it is vital for the market to maintain a sufficiently high level of unrealized profits,” the analyst stated.

The compression of supply in profit reflects broader market dynamics. Short-term investors face mounting pressure as the percentage of profitable holdings narrows. This dynamic increases the likelihood of cautious sentiment and selling activity, particularly among traders holding positions underwater or with minimal gains.

The 75% threshold carries historical weight in Bitcoin’s market cycles. During bull market phases, supply held in profit consistently remained above this level. The current 61% reading represents a meaningful departure from that pattern, suggesting that fewer holders maintain unrealized gains on their positions.

Bitcoin’s recent pullback has compressed profitability across the holder base. The proximity to $77,000 and the resistance at $80,000 will determine whether the supply-in-profit metric stabilizes or continues declining. Breaking above $80,000 would likely improve the percentage of supply in profit and potentially shift market sentiment toward risk-on positioning.

The supply-in-profit metric provides a window into holder conviction. As this percentage falls, the incentive structure for long-term holding weakens, potentially increasing volatility during price fluctuations.