Crypto analyst Merlijn the Trader has identified a recurring midterm pattern in Bitcoin’s price history that has preceded 15% average declines, warning that the current market cycle mirrors structural weakness observed in 2018 and 2022. The pattern shows consistent Q1 crashes, Q2 recoveries, and sharp May declines in midterm election years, with cycle lows forming in late November or December. Bitcoin currently trades near $77,324, placing it at potential risk if the pattern repeats in 2026.
Midterm Years Show Consistent Bitcoin Weakness
The midterm pattern emerged first in 2018, when Bitcoin fell 25% in Q1, rallied 33% in Q2, then dropped 19% in May before bottoming in December. The cycle repeated in 2022 with a 17% Q1 decline, a 5% March recovery, and a 16% April drop preceding a November bottom. Both years preceded U.S. midterm elections. The 2026 cycle has already begun tracking the same structure: a 23% Q1 crash in early 2026, followed by a 14% relief rally in March-April, with volatility and declines expected through May. Merlijn forecasts the midterm-year bottom will form in November or December 2026, consistent with prior cycles.
Analyst Forecasts Diverge on Crash Depth
While Merlijn identifies the structural pattern without naming a specific price target, fellow analyst Chiefy projects Bitcoin could fall to $37,000—a 52% decline from current levels near $77,000. This prediction aligns with the severity of past midterm-year corrections but represents an aggressive bear case. The 15% average decline cited by Merlijn suggests a more moderate pullback than Chiefy’s scenario, though both analysts agree a significant correction is imminent. The timing of Merlijn’s warning, issued May 19 via X post, positions the alert within the expected May decline window outlined in the historical pattern.
Election Cycles and Market Structure
The recurring midterm pattern raises questions about whether U.S. political cycles influence Bitcoin’s market structure through macro liquidity shifts, regulatory uncertainty, or investor positioning ahead of elections. No official explanation for the pattern’s causation has been provided by Bitcoin developers or institutions. The consistency across 2018 and 2022—two unrelated market environments—suggests either genuine cyclical behavior or coincidental alignment. If the pattern holds through 2026, it would indicate Bitcoin’s price action remains sensitive to broader macro and political calendars, not purely to on-chain metrics or adoption trends.
Next Catalyst: Late-Year Bottom Formation
The critical test occurs in November and December 2026, when Merlijn forecasts the midterm-year cycle low will establish. If Bitcoin bounces from November-December levels without breaching them significantly lower, the pattern holds. If the cycle breaks—with Bitcoin declining further or recovering sharply earlier—the midterm thesis loses predictive power. The pattern’s relevance depends on whether it repeats in 2028 and beyond, making the 2026 outcome a fundamental test of election-cycle market sensitivity in crypto.
