Polymarket is pushing the CFTC to reverse its 2022 ban on U.S. users accessing the platform’s main overseas prediction market. If approved, the move would allow the exchange to compete directly with Kalshi in the U.S. prediction market space. The talks between Polymarket and CFTC officials have accelerated in recent weeks, according to reporting from April 2026.
The 2022 Settlement and Current Restrictions
Polymarket reached a settlement with the CFTC in 2022 that forced the company to relocate its primary exchange outside the United States and prohibit American traders from accessing it. The restriction was designed to prevent the platform from operating as an unregistered derivatives exchange on U.S. soil. This settlement effectively locked Polymarket out of the domestic prediction market for nearly four years while the regulatory landscape remained uncertain.
In November 2025, the CFTC approved a separate, U.S.-only Polymarket platform specifically designed to comply with federal rules. That platform has not yet fully launched, creating a gap between regulatory approval and actual market operation.
CFTC Authority and Regulatory Bottleneck
The CFTC currently has only one sitting commissioner: Chairman Michael Selig. Four commission seats remain vacant, limiting the agency’s ability to vote on major policy decisions. Selig has previously stated that states lack authority over prediction markets, positioning the CFTC as the primary federal regulator in this space.
Without a quorum, or with minimal voting power, the CFTC faces operational constraints that could slow approval timelines. Polymarket’s request for a lift on the U.S. trader ban would require formal action from the commission, though no vote date has been announced.
Kalshi and the Competitive Landscape
Kalshi has established itself as the dominant U.S.-based prediction market platform, operating under CFTC approval since 2021. A lifting of Polymarket’s ban would introduce direct competition for market share, user volume, and trading fees. Both platforms operate contracts tied to elections, economic data, and other future events.
Prediction markets face ongoing scrutiny from states that argue they function as unlicensed gambling operations. The CFTC’s assertion of federal jurisdiction has created tension with state regulators, but Chairman Selig’s position has reinforced the agency’s regulatory authority over these instruments.
Outstanding Questions and Next Steps
Polymarket has declined to comment on the talks. No official CFTC statement has confirmed the discussions or provided a timeline for potential action. The approval process remains opaque, with no clarity on specific regulatory conditions or requirements that might be attached to lifting the ban.
The outcome will shape whether Polymarket can reclaim access to the U.S. market or remains confined to its overseas operations and domestic-only platform.
