Selling pressure intensifies as stronger-than-expected US jobs report raises Fed rate hike odds
Bitcoin investors realized more than $2 billion in losses over three days as a blockbuster US jobs report fueled expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Daily realized losses by Bitcoin investors ranged from $657 million to $703 million across the period, with the weekly net realized profit and loss standing at negative $191 million as of November 5.
The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, more than double economists’ expectations of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in September, while average hourly earnings increased 0.4%. The stronger-than-expected labor data raised the probability of a quarter-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December to 80%, up from 75%, and pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to 4.88% in early trading.
Bitcoin briefly plunged below $75,000 on Friday as a sharp sell-off in US technology stocks spilled into digital assets. The S&P 500 declined 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.52% on Thursday. Concerns about artificial intelligence valuations and prospect of tighter restrictions on data-center development following the Democratic sweep in US midterm elections drove the sharp decline in technology stocks.
Selling pressure now dominates spot trading on major exchanges. The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s spot net volume delta has turned negative on both Binance and Coinbase, indicating more aggressive selling than buying. At the end of August, Binance’s 30-day moving average spot net volume delta stood at positive $64.8 million and Coinbase’s at positive $64.3 million. By November 5, Binance recorded negative $28 million and Coinbase negative $9.4 million. Deterioration in spot net volume delta began on Coinbase in October, with Binance initially remaining positive before both exchanges recorded more aggressive selling than buying.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant head of research, warned that “without stronger spot buying or renewed capital inflows, further selling could encounter insufficient demand to stabilize prices.”
Bitget analyst Lewis Huang identified $76,500 as a near-term support level. If the $75,000 support level fails to hold, Bitcoin could potentially move toward $70,000. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum, noted that “investors should watch longer-term Treasury yields, which could determine whether financial conditions tighten further.”
Bitcoin’s problems extend beyond the equity-market downturn. Declining Bitcoin demand and contracting stablecoin liquidity have been identified as two major challenges pressuring prices.
