Bitcoin held its 100-day simple moving average near 76,548 as US markets braced for midterm elections, jobs data, and tech earnings reports in the week ahead.
The cryptocurrency ended October down 7.3 percent, marking its weakest October since 2014. Bitcoin’s quarterly decline stood at 6.4 percent as of Monday. The low near monthly close reached 76,300, just below the 100-day average and above the 100-week exponential moving average at 77,759.
The timing carries historical weight. Bitcoin ended lower in each of the past three US midterm election years: 2014 (down 17.3 percent), 2018 (down 43.5 percent), and 2022 (down 14.8 percent). All three years coincided with bear markets.
Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of IntoTheCryptoverse, reframed the pattern as opportunity. “Usually the Q4 dump of midterm years just provide opportunities to buy for those who sold long ago,” Cowen said. He noted that Bitcoin bear-market bottoms have historically coincided with the second half of midterm years, and suggested midterms can function as a cue to increase BTC exposure despite near-term bearish pressure.
Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst, flagged technical risk. “The question now is whether Bitcoin can produce some sort of downside deviation below here over the next few weeks,” Rekt Capital said. The analyst compared the current weekly chart to Bitcoin’s 2022 bear-market recovery, noting an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern and a right-shoulder support retest.
Election and Fed Catalysts
Kalshi, a prediction market platform, showed traders assigning 93.6 percent probability to Democrats winning House control as of Monday. The midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 5.
US President Donald Trump commented on potential divided government. “I guess I’ll become Mr Veto. They’ll be sending stuff up. You veto it,” Trump said.
The Federal Reserve’s December rate decision looms. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows markets expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25 percentage points at the December FOMC meeting, with odds of that increase held between 67 and 75 percent over the past month.
Jobs Data and Tech Earnings
September US job openings data is due Tuesday. The September nonfarm payrolls report showed 29,000 jobs added, falling well short of the 84,000 forecast. October nonfarm payrolls are due Friday, with forecasts for a 65,000-job rise.
The University of Michigan preliminary November consumer sentiment survey is also due Friday.
Tech sector earnings dominate this week. Apple and Palantir are scheduled to report after market close Monday. Approximately 20 percent of S&P 500 companies are due to report earnings in the coming days.
Mohamed El-Erian, economist, flagged vulnerability in the sector. “The market is particularly focused on justification for the massive capital expenditures being deployed across the sector, ROI’s, and revenue growth,” El-Erian said. Last week’s tech sell-off renewed concerns about AI spending and profitability. Markets are “acutely sensitive” to tech-sector news headlines, according to El-Erian.
Historical Context
Bitcoin’s October 2026 performance marked its weakest October since 2014. The convergence of midterm elections, Fed policy signals, and tech earnings represents the kind of macro volatility that has historically pressured crypto assets in the final quarter of midterm years.
