Bitcoin price gains are being capped at $87,700 by investors who purchased BTC in late 2025 and now sit on unrealized losses, according to on-chain analysis from Glassnode. The resistance level reflects the aggregate cost basis of that cohort and has repeatedly blocked upward momentum since January 2026.

Two separate holder groups have enforced price ceilings throughout 2026. In November 2025, the six-to-12-month holder cohort established a cost basis at $94,000. When Bitcoin rose to that level in January and attempted to break above a $97,100 trendline, price rejected and fell by more than a third. The one-to-two-year holder cohort slipped into aggregate loss in February 2026 at a $76,900 cost basis. When price met that level in May, it fell by approximately a quarter.

“Bitcoin rose to the 6-12 month cost basis in January and then fell by more than a third. It met the 1-2 year cost basis in May and fell by about a quarter. The 1-2 year holders also stepped up their selling into the rally at the start of October,” Glassnode stated in its analysis.

The current cost basis for one-to-two-year holders stands at $99,500, while the 20-month simple moving average sits at $87,165. Glassnode noted that reclaiming this moving average as support has historically preceded new all-time highs.

Support Zones and ETF Flows

Bitcoin has established support near $80,000, reinforced by US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows. The $80,000 level functions as both a psychological support and a magnet for bid liquidity across exchange order books. Glassnode calculated the spot ETF cost basis at $81,500, placing it just above the $80,000 zone.

“The block sits just under the US Spot ETF Cost Basis, so the zone between $80K and $81.5K is where order-book and on-chain support overlap. A break below it would bring the liquidation cluster just under $80K, and then the True Market Mean near $78K, into play,” Glassnode said.

The true market mean for all BTC acquired on secondary markets is $77,500, while short-term holders (up to six months) show a breakeven point of $74,600. These levels establish a cascading support structure should Bitcoin price decline from current resistance zones.