Bitcoin fell below $81,000 on October 8, with an intraday low near $80,800, as traders repositioned amid shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy into 2027.
The decline triggered over $1 billion in liquidations of leveraged long positions within 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data. Of that total, $930 million was tied to longs.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller cited futures pricing as of October 7 showing an 85% probability of at least one rate hike by December. The same pricing assigned nearly 80% to at least two hikes by March 2027 and 33% to three or more. Waller said “further hikes are probable if data evolve as expected and that they can skip meetings,” signaling the Fed retains optionality on timing.
The September FOMC minutes, released October 7, stated most participants viewed another rate increase by year-end as probable, though decisions remain dependent on incoming data. An October hold delays the next rate increase on the calendar while the policy path into 2027 remains steep.
Volume and Liquidity Dynamics
Glassnode’s October 7 report found Bitcoin spot-exchange and US spot ETF combined volume near $6.8 billion daily, below roughly 90% of observations since January 2024. The shallow volume backdrop left limited buying depth to absorb selling pressure.
Estimated new money from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate treasury buying totaled $4.9 billion, while realized cap rose $12.8 billion over 30 days, representing less than 40% of the total. The prior price move higher leaned on existing capital repricing coins rather than fresh inflows.
Liquidation Clusters and Support Levels
Glassnode flagged a modeled cluster of long liquidations between $81,700 and $83,300, positioning the October 8 decline to trigger positions near the lower bound. Large Binance bids clustered around $81,000 to $81,250, offering potential support.
Bitcoin would need to reclaim $85,500 to clear near-term sell-order concentration between $86,500 and $86,750. The largest one-year cluster of liquidations sits above price, between $87,100 and $95,900, with heaviest concentration near $92,000. On the downside, the next modeled liquidation cluster rests at $75,000.
On October 8, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.305% and the 2-year at 4.821%, while Brent crude traded at $104.87. September CPI data is expected October 14, ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for October 27 to 28.
