Bitcoin’s drop below $58,000 in July triggered an unusual market response. Onchain HODL Waves data revealed that the portion of Bitcoin supply dormant for one to seven days, a metric tracking fresh buyer activity, remained depressed compared to historical bear-market lows.

On July 1, when BTC/USD reached its lowest levels since September 2024, the one-to-seven-day dormancy group represented just 1.97% of total supply. Four days later, on July 5, that figure had risen only to 2.35%. The muted uptick contrasted sharply with previous bear-market cycles, when buyers typically rushed to purchase newly established lows.

Willy Woo, an onchain analyst, attributed the anomaly to concentrated purchasing power. “Whoever bought the bottom did it slowly. Possibly even a single whale,” Woo said. He elaborated: “I haven’t found any other thesis to explain the anomaly apart from slow steady buying by all investors involved this implies it’s a handful of buyers because if it was many they tend to act like a herd around price action and create spikes in the buying pattern.”

Woo cautioned that institutional investment vehicles may complicate HODL Waves interpretation, meaning his reading of the data carried inherent limitations.

The debate over whether July marked Bitcoin’s true bear-market floor remained unresolved. Bitcoin rebounded above $80,000 following the low, yet structural questions persisted about the durability of any floor level.

Rekt Capital, a trader and analyst, warned that bear-market structure remained intact, characterized by a series of lower highs within a broader downtrend. “At this very moment, Bitcoin is positioned for a repeat of bearish price history. However, Bitcoin has a few more days to turn things around before the new Weekly Close, if it can. A Weekly Close below ~$78300 could set price up for a breakdown like in May,” Rekt Capital stated.

In August, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $3.8 billion in net inflows over a three-week period, suggesting institutional interest in Bitcoin at elevated price levels rather than at the July lows.