Short-term Bitcoin holders underwater on their recent purchases are selling into price recoveries, keeping BTC wedged in a narrow range and preventing a breakout above their average entry point.
Bitcoin has been trading between $58,000 and $68,000 since the start of June, with a 50-month trend line near $65,800 adding further constraint to the range. According to Glassnode’s August 13 analysis, the stalemate stems from the cost basis of recent buyers. Short-term holders, defined as those who acquired BTC within the past six months, are collectively underwater on 7.2% of their aggregate investment.
“The cost-basis ladder frames the stalemate. Spot sits just above the Median Realized Price at $63.0K, the level that splits every coin’s cost basis down the middle, and below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at $68.7K, the average entry of the market’s most recent buyers,” Glassnode wrote. “That cohort is underwater, which historically makes it quick to sell into recoveries, while the median level has absorbed every test from above for more than a month.”
The supply concentration reinforces the price ceiling. A $3,000 band spanning $62,000 to $65,000 holds 1,794,308 BTC, equivalent to 8.93% of circulating supply. Within that band, the largest holdings cluster near $63,800.
Bitfinex Alpha, the research arm of crypto exchange Bitfinex, identified ownership density as the primary driver of resistance. “The reason the boundaries are so stubborn is due to ownership. The $62,000-$65,000 band holds 1,794,308 BTC at this cost basis, 8.93% of circulating supply per the UTXO Realised Price Distribution (URPD), with the largest holdings at ~$63,800,” Bitfinex Alpha stated.
This concentration creates a dynamic where holders oscillate between profit and loss. “With price trading inside this band, the largest concentration of holders across any narrow $3,000 range keeps moving between profit and loss and a large volume of coins changes hands as a result,” Bitfinex Alpha added.
The pattern mirrors historical behavior during Bitcoin bear markets. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned that $63,000 was weakening as local support, signaling potential downside pressure. The all-time high of $69,400 from November 2021 remains a distant reference point as the current price structure keeps buyers trapped below their entry costs.
