BTC breaks through $64K amid geopolitical shifts and inflation cooling
Bitcoin reached $64,350 on July 10, 2026, crossing the $64,000 threshold as the US dollar index fell for a third consecutive day and crude oil prices declined amid US-Iran peace negotiations.
The move positions BTC within $400 of new three-week highs, with traders eyeing the $65,000 resistance level as the next critical barrier. “Bitcoin attacking the crucial resistance of $65,000 again. If this breaks, then we’re flipping many downtrends on many Altcoins into uptrends,” said Michaël van de Poppe, a crypto trader and analyst.
The dollar’s weakness stems partly from shifting inflation expectations. Just seven weeks prior, prediction service Polymarket data showed an 85% probability of US inflation rising above 4.5% in 2026, according to The Kobeissi Letter. That probability has since declined. “Inflation expectations are coming down again,” The Kobeissi Letter stated.
Oil markets also moved lower, with US WTI crude oil rejecting from $76 per barrel. QCP Capital, a trading company, attributed some of the stability to geopolitical developments. “With no monetary cushion coming, the physical buffers matter more. In oil, Doha talks ended with no shipping deal and missiles struck two tankers on 7 July, with Hormuz flows still well below normal,” QCP Capital noted.
The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, meanwhile, remains historically constrained. The SPR sits at 319.5 million barrels, its lowest level since 1983, leaving only a 19.5 million barrel buffer before the 300 million barrel stress zone threshold, according to QCP Capital.
QCP Capital warned that underlying economic risks persist despite market optimism. “It’s clearest in private credit, where redemption requests have blown through the 5% quarterly gates across several funds,” the firm stated, signaling stress in less visible corners of financial markets.
The US dollar index’s decline from its mid-June low and crude oil’s pullback from $76 per barrel have created conditions favorable for risk assets including Bitcoin. Traders are now focused on whether BTC can sustain momentum through the $65,000 resistance level to unlock further gains across cryptocurrency markets.
