Price recovery off $57,700 low shows 11% gain despite bearish sentiment index

Bitcoin traded near $62,000 on July 8 after rebounding from a $57,700 low reached last week, according to analysis published by CryptoQuant. The recovery represents an 11% gain from the bear-market bottom, though the cryptocurrency remains below the $64,000 rebound high seen during the bounce.

CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index, which aggregates on-chain, market, and valuation conditions on a 0-to-100 scale, registered at 20, placing Bitcoin in bearish territory. Readings at or below 40 indicate a bearish regime, while a score of 60 aligns with sustainable bull-market conditions.

Despite the low index reading, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, stated that “the backdrop skews toward further gains.” Moreno framed the current bounce as a bear-market recovery rather than a trend reversal, according to the firm’s weekly report published today.

Demand metrics show reversal from early June collapse

Early June marked the deepest demand weakness since 2022. The 30-day change in total demand collapsed to negative 650,000 BTC as Bitcoin fell toward $58,000. On-chain trader unrealized profit/loss margins for coins held one to three months dropped below negative 24%, crossing below the negative 12% threshold commonly treated as an undervalued signal.

Recent data shows improvement. Speculative futures demand has crossed into positive territory. Spot selling has eased to its slowest pace since mid-May. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks institutional buying pressure, sank below zero in early June as Bitcoin bottomed near $57,700 but has since recovered.

Seasonality supports further upside

July has ranked among Bitcoin’s stronger months across the past decade, closing higher in most years. The pattern held even during down-cycles in 2018 and 2022, when Bitcoin gained 20% and 17% respectively during the month.

CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that improving on-chain demand conditions, seasonal tailwinds, and valuation metrics provide support for continued gains. However, the Bull Score Index reading of 20 signals that Bitcoin remains in a bearish regime, tempering expectations for a sustained rally.