More than 10.83 million Bitcoin are now trading at a loss, surpassing the 9.22 million coins still in profit, according to Glassnode on-chain analysis. The shift marks one of the sharpest deteriorations in investor profitability since the current bull market began.
Loss-making supply now accounts for roughly 54% of the measured Bitcoin total, compared with 46% still in profit. The 1.61 million BTC margin by which underwater coins exceed profitable ones reflects sustained capitulation among retail and institutional participants.
Yet beneath the surface, long-term holders have reversed course. Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score climbed across multiple cohorts this week, with strongest readings among wallets holding less than 1 BTC and entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC. Wallets in the 1,000-to-10,000 BTC range also turned net buyers. This reversal marks a sharp break from an extended stretch of distribution that preceded the drawdown.
The divergence reflects a structural split in the market. US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs remain in sustained net outflow territory, with institutional investors liquidating positions. Simultaneously, on-chain conviction is building in the opposite direction. Coinbase and Binance both show order books shifting toward the bid, with buyers adding liquidity below spot price.
Options traders are already pricing in volatility. The 14-day put-to-call volume ratio climbed above 1.0, its highest reading in a year, as traders pay up for downside protection from depressed implied volatility levels. Hyperliquid derivatives traders hold a long bias at the highest level Glassnode has tracked, suggesting leveraged bets on a bounce before spot conviction is fully confirmed.
The mechanics explain the price action. ETF selling pressure keeps Bitcoin weak, while long-term holders absorb coins at lower prices. Glassnode tracks accumulation signals across wallet sizes to distinguish conviction from noise. The synchronized buying across multiple cohorts, from sub-1 BTC holders to entities with thousands of coins, suggests structural demand rather than tactical dip-buying.
How long the underwater cohort remains in loss territory depends on whether long-term holder accumulation can absorb ETF outflows and stabilize price. The Accumulation Trend Score surge this week indicates early-stage positioning, not confirmation of a bottom. Hyperliquid leverage bets add risk if spot price continues lower before on-chain buyers have fully deployed capital.
