Transitional Period Ends July 1; Only 231 Licensed Providers Ready
European cryptocurrency firms operating under pre-Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) national licenses face elimination this week as a transitional grace period expires, forcing compliance with unified EU rules or closure.
The deadline arrives July 1, 2026. As of June 2026, only 231 crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) held MiCA authorization across the European Economic Area’s 27 member states, according to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). That figure stands against roughly 3,000 registered virtual asset service providers (VASPs) operating under legacy national licenses as of 2024, including 1,400 in Poland alone.
Erald Ghoos, CEO of OKX Europe, estimated the toll bluntly: “I estimate that 80% of the crypto players won’t survive after MiCA. It’s not only because of MiCA itself, it’s because of the whole width and heaviness of the European regulatory burden.”
MiCA took effect June 30, 2024, with stablecoin rules; full regulations launched six months later in December 2024. Firms grandfathered under pre-MiCA national licenses were permitted to operate only until July 1, 2026. After that date, any jurisdiction allowing unlicensed firms to continue operating under existing national law would breach EU regulations, according to Lavan Thasarathakumar, senior adviser at law firm Hogan Lovells.
The compliance burden is steep. Obtaining a MiCA spot license requires between 50,000 euros ($57,000) and 150,000 euros in locked capital, depending on service class. First-year license costs can reach 700,000 euros for smaller operations, with annual fees dropping to 250,000 euros thereafter. Patrick Gruhn, founder and CEO of Perpetuals.com Ltd., estimated the timeline to first authorized trade at “12–24 months to the first authorized trade with maybe €100k lawyer fees.”
Mateusz Kara, CEO of Morphic Financial Group, highlighted the regional disparity. “It will change the business landscape of crypto entities a lot. For example, in Poland, we have around 2,000 VASP entities. As far as I know, we are the only ones that have a MiCA license right now.”
Regulatory fragmentation compounds the challenge. Jeffrey Greenbaum, partner at Hogan Lovells, noted that “smaller financial hubs like Luxembourg and Dublin want to keep their market share. Then there are other regulators that were upset by what happened with Malta and Cyprus.”
John Salmon, also a partner at Hogan Lovells, acknowledged the uncertainty. “Given where we are, it does seem unlikely the regulators are going to be overly harsh, but we don’t know. And each country is probably going to have a different approach.”
Kara predicted consolidation: “In my opinion, the European market will be consolidated by the bigger players, and we already see that happening.”
Mike Belshe, CEO of custody firm BitGo, warned of broader fallout. “With less than 250 authorized service providers, European users will become the biggest victims of the end of this transitional period.”
