Bitcoin advocate argues halving cycle accelerated, contradicting predictions for further downside to $40,000–$55,000
Samson Mow claimed on June 28 that bitcoin’s price bottom has already occurred, challenging a growing consensus among analysts who predict the asset could fall further into the $40,000 to $55,000 range.
Mow, former chief strategy officer at Blockstream, based his argument on an acceleration of bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle. He noted that bitcoin reached an all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, a timing he said contradicts the standard cycle pattern.
“I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in four months because of ‘cycles,'” Mow wrote. “But we had an (all-time high) ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles, you should reason out that the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in.”
Mow is known for a $1 million bitcoin price prediction and his work on El Salvador’s bitcoin initiatives and nation-state adoption strategies.
His statement directly contradicts several prominent market participants. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, predicted a bitcoin bottom between August and October 2026 at around $55,000. Arthur Hayes, BitMex co-founder, suggested the asset could fall to $40,000 within six months. James Van Straten, CoinDesk senior analyst, flagged the $50,000 to $54,000 range as the next key battleground, citing bitcoin’s test of its 200-week moving average.
Van Straten also noted that “with bitcoin testing its 200-week moving average, onchain data suggests the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become the next key battleground.”
Technical indicators present mixed signals. The 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages are close to forming a “bear cross,” a pattern historically associated with market bottoms. However, analysts interpret this differently: some view it as bullish evidence that a bottom is near, while others use the 200-week moving average to argue for 15% further downside from current levels.
A structural difference separates this cycle from prior bear markets. Bitcoin has not yet fallen below its realized price in the current cycle, unlike in every major bear market since 2011. This divergence fuels debate over whether the asset has truly bottomed.
Several analysts have suggested that U.S. spot bitcoin ETF launches could have altered the traditional halving cycle pattern, introducing institutional demand flows that break historical precedent. This argument underpins skepticism toward purely cycle-based predictions.
Mow’s claim remains an outlier position. The broader analyst consensus leans toward further downside, with price targets clustered in the $40,000 to $55,000 band. Whether his accelerated-cycle thesis gains traction may depend on bitcoin’s near-term price action and whether the predicted battleground levels hold.
