Six weeks of ETF outflows and macro headwinds override valuation signals
Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 on June 25, marking a decline of nearly $18,000 from its late-May peak of $77,623. The pullback reflects a disconnect between on-chain valuation metrics and actual buyer appetite, according to analysis from Glassnode, an on-chain data analytics firm.
Glassnode frames the move as demand failure driven by three overlapping pressures: spot market selling, sustained ETF outflows, and macroeconomic headwinds. US spot Bitcoin ETF products experienced six consecutive weeks of net outflows totaling roughly $6 billion. At the worst of the June drawdown, daily net flows averaged nearly negative $300 million.
BlackRock’s IBIT experienced the largest single-day redemption of 2026 on June 2, shedding $388 million. The selloff accelerated after an early June US jobs report led money markets to fully price a Fed rate hike by year-end, reversing prior expectations for rate cuts. Two-year Treasury yields jumped 12 basis points to 4.16%. The dollar rose to a one-year high, with the dollar index climbing to 101.15 on June 23. Nasdaq 100 dropped roughly 5% and a chipmaker gauge fell 10% during the same period.
On-chain metrics suggest the sell-off has overshot. Glassnode places Bitcoin’s True Market Mean at $77,000, putting current prices roughly 23% below that level. The 90-day average net realized profit/loss stands at around negative $205 million per day, confirming sustained loss realization among holders. Short-term holder cost basis has fallen to $71,400, creating a dense cluster of supply between $66,800 and $70,700.
Spot exchange behavior offers mixed signals. Coinbase’s Spot CVD has returned to positive territory while Binance’s has held negative, suggesting divergent selling pressure across venues. Options traders have paid up for protection against another leg lower. One-week and one-month 25-delta skew levels rose sharply to 24% and 23% respectively, compared to prior levels of 12% and 14%.
A tentative stabilization emerged on June 23, when $39.2 million in net ETF inflows marked the first positive day in weeks. ARKB and MSBT led the inflows. Bitcoin recovered to $61,600 by press time, but the broader pattern reflects institutional caution despite valuation support from on-chain metrics. Glassnode flagged the dollar’s return above its 200-day moving average as a persistent headwind for Bitcoin denominated in fiat terms.
