Long-term Bitcoin holders who acquired coins more than five years ago have cut spending to a 90-day average of 962 BTC, the lowest level since November 2024, according to CryptoQuant data tracking spent transaction outputs.
The decline reverses three major spending peaks over the past two years. The 90-day moving average peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024. It fell to 3,200 BTC in February 2025, then to 2,360 BTC in September 2025, before reaching current levels.
The pullback in OG holder activity suggests early adopter confidence remains intact despite broader market pressure. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. framed the split between long-term and short-term holders bluntly. “STH capital has shrunk by -56%, while LTH capital has barely drawn down. Weak hands are capitulating. Strong hands have not even flinched.”
Analyst Darkfost noted that the most expensive coins held by this cohort were acquired for about $63,200, close to current prices. That leaves early holders near their highest cost basis, yet they are choosing not to sell.
Halving cycle points to a September bottom
Analysts cite Bitcoin’s halving cycle as a framework for spotting market bottoms. In the previous cycle, the market entered final capitulation roughly 826 days after the halving, followed by a major low and 70 to 110 days of sideways consolidation.
For the current cycle, the 826-day marker falls on July 6. Applying the same timing range places a potential bottoming window in early September. Trader Titan flagged the third and fourth quarters as the broader bottoming window, a scenario that gains weight if Bitcoin trades higher into early July.
On-chain metrics flash capitulation signals
Bitcoin’s adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) has fallen to -0.14, down from near zero a month ago, according to Axel Adler Jr. The reading shows the average holder has moved back into unrealized losses as Bitcoin trades near $62,500. The metric has spent nearly half of the past three months below zero, a condition historically tied to capitulation.
Titan also pointed to downside liquidity below current levels. On the quarterly chart, Bitcoin has an untapped low near $58,900 and an open fair value gap between roughly $49,000 and $58,900.
The combination of falling OG holder spending, short-term holder capitulation, and halving-cycle timing suggests the market may be nearing a final washout. In past cycles, long-term holder passivity at this stage has preceded multi-month recoveries.
