Blockchain Analytics Platform Flags Coordinated Trading Pattern
Three cryptocurrency wallets generated $24.25 million in combined profits on World Cup prediction markets, then routed the proceeds through a single Binance deposit address, according to blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain.
The wallets, identified as mintblade, GRIMDRIP, and EndlessFate, posted a remarkable win rate across 16 settled World Cup bets on Polymarket. Mintblade earned $9.24 million from five winning positions with no recorded losses. GRIMDRIP generated $7.6 million from two winning trades. EndlessFate made $7.41 million, correctly predicting 6 of 9 outcomes.
All three accounts transferred their profits to Binance deposit address 0xB08B…317D. Cryptocurrency exchanges typically assign individual deposit addresses to each customer, making a shared address potentially indicative of account ownership by the same person or organization, according to Lookonchain’s analysis.
The pattern has drawn scrutiny because the wallets ceased trading after recording profits and withdrew remaining funds. Lookonchain noted the shared withdrawal route may link the accounts to one operator, though the firm cautioned that the shared deposit address and trading record alone do not prove the accounts received nonpublic information.
Polymarket’s terms prohibit trading on markets when traders possess confidential information or can influence results. Kalshi, a competing prediction market platform, has imposed restrictions on athletes, political candidates, and other participants connected to listed events.
The World Cup prediction markets saw extraordinary volume. More than $5 billion had been traded on World Cup contracts across Polymarket’s international exchange and Kalshi during the tournament’s opening stages. Polymarket’s World Cup winner contract alone accumulated $3 billion in cumulative volume.
Dara Campbell, senior executive at Hashgraph Ventures, said the scale of activity exceeded forecasts. “Everyone knew this World Cup would catapult prediction markets to another level. But the numbers are smashing expectations,” Campbell said.
Lookonchain identified the three wallets on June 21. The firm noted that other wallets displayed similar trading patterns since the World Cup began, according to onchain analyst Specter, though Specter did not provide evidence linking those accounts to the three identified by Lookonchain.
Large profits on prediction markets do not necessarily indicate misconduct. Bettors taking the other side of heavily favored outcomes can receive substantial payouts when upsets or draws occur, and users can build large positions when sufficient liquidity is available.
One example illustrates the dynamic: a wallet named fishalive earned $9 million in profit by committing $4.2 million to two positions, including $427,000 wagered on Spain failing to win at 9% implied probability. When Spain drew scoreless, that position paid out $4.7 million.
As of press time, neither Polymarket nor Binance had publicly confirmed Lookonchain’s findings or stated whether they conducted their own investigations into the three wallets.
