Pattern Last Appeared in 2019 Before Run to $69K All-Time High
Bitcoin has moved into a dollar-cost averaging accumulation zone on the monthly timeframe, a price region that historically preceded major rallies to all-time highs in previous market cycles, according to analysis by crypto analyst Ardizor.
The pattern mirrors two prior episodes. In 2019, Bitcoin entered a depressed DCA accumulation area after falling 83% from its 2017 peak near $19,000. That zone preceded the 2021 run to $69,000. The 2022 episode followed an identical structure but compressed in duration. The FTX exchange collapse in November 2022 triggered forced selling that drove Bitcoin to around $15,500, establishing a second accumulation zone. Bitcoin then rallied more than 600% above $100,000, reaching a new all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025.
Bitcoin is now trading near $62,800 as of the time of analysis. The current DCA zone did not form during calm market conditions. Both prior accumulation phases emerged when liquidity was thin and traders expected another decline, according to the analysis.
Realized Cap Decline and Transition Phase
Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has declined roughly $12 billion from its mid-May peak, a metric that tracks the aggregate cost basis of all Bitcoin holders. On-chain analysis using the PnL Index shows Bitcoin remains in a transition phase but has yet to reach a bottom, which creates tension with the bullish DCA-zone thesis.
ETF flows and on-chain signals are adding bearish pressure that counters the accumulation occurring at the DCA zone. This conflict between institutional demand and on-chain weakness suggests the current price region may not immediately resolve into a sustained rally, despite historical precedent.
The 2019 and 2022 accumulation zones did not appear during calm conditions but when liquidity was thin and traders expected another bottom. If the current pattern follows prior cycles, the DCA zone represents a region where long-term opportunity was quietly forming when sentiment was at its lowest.
