Bitcoin price remains under pressure, yet five separate technical and on-chain data points have reached historical extremes that prompted Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, to begin personal accumulation despite near-term downside risk.
The Crosby Ratio Z-score, which measures Bitcoin price momentum adjusted for evolving volatility, currently stands at -1.7. According to Crosby’s analysis, 99.8% of Bitcoin’s trading history has seen less extreme readings at this level. Previous instances of similarly depressed Crosby Ratio readings occurred during the recent drop to $60,000, the first break below $20,000 in 2022, the COVID crash in March 2020, and the 2018 bear market low.
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has reached one of its lowest levels ever recorded. Comparable readings appeared during the 2015 bear market low, the 2018 bear market low, the COVID crash, and the recent $60,000 decline. The 200-week moving average, which has historically served as bear market support throughout Bitcoin’s existence, currently sits near Bitcoin’s price, with the network bouncing off that level recently.
The Sell-Side Price Ratio (SOPR) is trading in the bottom fifth percentile of its historical range. Crosby noted that selling driving the recent move has been predominantly short-term in nature, with long-term holders largely abstaining from liquidation. The Mayer Multiple, which measures Bitcoin price relative to the 200-day moving average, has also reached the bottom fifth percentile. When SOPR and Mayer Multiple have historically converged at lower extremes simultaneously, the resulting accumulation opportunities have been exceptional, occurring only a handful of times and each followed by significant price appreciation.
Crosby anticipated a pullback from the $80,000 resistance zone but stated the move through $70,000 was sharper than expected. Bitcoin’s realized price, which represents the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin in circulation, sits not far beneath current levels and would serve as the next meaningful support zone if the recent low is revisited.
The recent cycle low sits directly beneath current prices, creating structure for a potential double bottom formation. The 200-week moving average and Bitcoin’s realized price converge in approximately the same zone, reinforcing the technical significance of this area.
“The bitcoin price looks bad, but I’m buying,” Crosby said. “Price might go lower, it always can, but there is value at these levels, and I’m accumulating.”
Crosby emphasized transparency regarding his personal positioning relative to his published analysis. “I think it’s important to be honest about how I’m actually acting on the analysis I publish, rather than just presenting data from a distance,” he said. “This is not the moment to wait on the sidelines for a marginally better price.”
