Tony predicts Bitcoin will test new lows this year, citing broken technical support and historical bear cycle patterns
Bitcoin has fallen below $67,000 after crashing from a local top near $82,000, and the crypto analyst who predicted that decline says further downside is coming. Tony, a crypto analyst, identified the 200-day moving average as critical resistance during bear markets and now expects Bitcoin to reach $40,000 to $50,000 by summer before the current bear cycle bottoms.
“Bitcoin crashed from $82,000 for a reason, as the 200 MA has always been an important resistance level during bear markets,” Tony said. He noted that Bitcoin has broken its ascending channel and is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, a bearish technical signal.
At the time of analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $66,300, down more than 6% in 24 hours. Tony expects a short-term bounce to around $74,000 before Bitcoin resumes its downtrend. “Whatever scenario plays out, it will not change the fact that BTC is in a bear cycle and will make new lows this year,” he said.
Tony referenced 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels as technical markers in the current move and emphasized that “the bear trap is likely over and that the main trend is still down, which is why he expects new lows this year.” He also cautioned that “short-term bounces are possible, but a bull market is unlikely to happen anytime soon.”
Colin, another crypto analyst, agrees on further downside but offers a different timeframe for near-term recovery. Colin identified the $65,000 to $66,000 range as reasonable support for a short-term bounce, which “could be for weeks or a couple of months.” He noted that Bitcoin retesting $60,000 remains highly likely and that breaking below the February low of $60,000 is still a possibility.
Colin pointed to historical precedent to support his bearish view. “BTC has always suffered losses of over 70% in past bear cycles, but the leading crypto has yet to record such a loss in this cycle from its October high of $126,000,” he said. The current drawdown from October’s peak stands at roughly 47%, leaving room for a steeper decline if historical patterns hold.
Colin also stated that “the February low of $60,000 is unlikely to be Bitcoin’s bottom in this bear cycle,” suggesting that if Bitcoin reaches that level, further losses could follow. Both analysts agree that the bear market remains the dominant trend, though they differ on the duration and exact magnitude of near-term bounces before new lows emerge.
