Single large holder exits amid short-term volatility, but onchain data shows long-term investors holding firm
An early Ethereum whale sold 55,000 ETH and 9,442 ETH over the past week for a combined $136 million, according to onchain analysis. The two tranches were valued at $112.25 million and $24 million respectively, with the sales occurring as ETH/USD oscillated around the $2,000 psychological support level.
Despite the large exit, onchain data shows no evidence of widespread selling by long-term Ethereum holders. According to Glassnode and Lookonchain analysis, the share of supply held by the 5-year to 7-year investor cohort actually increased slightly from 8.59% on May 19 to 9% currently. Supply held by older investor cohorts has generally risen over the past year, suggesting conviction among early network participants remains intact.
The picture is different for short-term holders. The 3-month to 6-month investor cohort saw its supply share collapse from 13.5% on May 19 to 9% today. The 1-week to 1-month holder cohort dropped from 4.76% to 2.6% over the same period. This pattern reflects profit-taking by recent arrivals rather than capitulation by the network’s earliest supporters.
ETH has declined 2% over the last 24 hours and 6.5% over the week, with the asset now trading at $1,980. Analysts are watching for a hold above $1,800, which they identify as crucial support to prevent a deeper correction.
“This doesn’t look good for Ethereum. Momentum continues to favor the bears as $ETH moves closer to the next key support area,” analyst Alex Marzell said in a post on Sunday.
Merlijn The Trader, another analyst, characterizes the current price action as “Phase B consolidation, post-selling climax” and notes the pattern is “mapping perfectly onto a Wyckoff Accumulation structure.” The Wyckoff framework suggests a potential bottom below $1,500, a level also cited by Echo Analysis as a bear flag breakdown target.
Onchain metrics suggest further downside risk. Increasing supply on exchanges and declining ETF demand are cited as headwinds. Supply held by the 5-year to 7-year cohort, while up slightly, remains well below the levels seen in 2022 when ETH bottomed below $1,000.
The $136 million whale sale underscores how concentrated Ethereum’s early supply remains. The exit, however, appears isolated. Long-term holder behavior, tracked via HODL waves analysis, shows most early investors are weathering the volatility without panic selling.
Price targets and support zones
Analysts have identified multiple support levels in the coming weeks. The $1,800 level is considered critical. Below that, a demand zone exists between $1,700 and $1,500, with $1,500 emerging as a consensus downside target from multiple analysts if the current correction accelerates.
