Wintermute, a crypto liquidity provider and trading firm with $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume, is now posting continuous two-sided bid and offer prices across event contracts on prediction market platforms.
The announcement marks Wintermute’s entry into prediction markets, a sector that has grown from a niche forecasting tool into a broader venue for trading event risk. Kalshi and Polymarket, the two leading prediction market platforms, combined handle $5.8 billion in notional weekly volume across 400,000 active markets and 42.7 million weekly transactions, according to data from DeFiRate.
Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, framed the move as a response to structural gaps in the emerging asset class. “These markets have the demand profile of a major asset class but the liquidity profile of an early-stage one,” Ostrovskis said. Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, holds 70% of the combined volume between the two platforms.
Wintermute said it would provide “two-sided markets across event contracts on leading venues.” The firm already manages spot, derivatives, decentralized finance, and over-the-counter crypto markets. Politics and sports dominate betting activity on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Ostrovskis emphasized the role of liquidity depth in market quality. “For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity,” he said. “That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices.”
The entry of an established liquidity provider signals growing institutional interest in prediction markets as the platforms scale. Wintermute did not specify which platforms it will trade on or provide details on the size of its liquidity commitment.
